本周打完收工，石化单子砍半留半浮盈不多了，清仓qdii美股挣了一点屁钱，癌股的加仓按计划进行，礼拜天就是阴历韭月三十，看看没有韭月魔咒，能不能顺利一些吧。 View quoted note →

墙内估计只能找代购了 View quoted note →

蛤 you jump i jump🤣

今天继续回吐，10月又白忙活了。这次反弹似乎有点力度，明天不泄气的话，准备进场做多了，把石化的仓位砍了再加一倍。 View quoted note →

🤌🤌🤌

世界从不奖励辛苦，只奖励判断力和复利。 ―― 纳瓦尔

网友评论：这纪念品完成度一般，非要打分的话，九十几吧😇

社保发改委计划 ai推送 本周照常定投：中证500 PE百分位63%合理偏上→500元，中证1000 PE百分位55%→500元，合计1000元，无需调整。

@空空追梦 并不是字节控制了受众，霸占受众的时间。而是字节预判到受众的喜好，吸引受众纷至沓来。不信，如果字节不去推荐那些在专家学者看来伤风败俗不高雅的内容，而是推荐什么秦朔、吴晓波、海边西塞罗等复旦系傻瓜传媒人的内容，字节时间就要变成快手时间、B站时间或者视频号时间了、 +10086

### 共和党该输了，但民主党也不配赢 Republicans Deserve to Lose, but Democrats Do Not Deserve to Win. 作者：罗恩·保罗（Ron Paul）｜栏目：Power & Market｜2026-11-03 Anyone wondering why the Republicans are facing historic losses in this week's midterm elections should consider these two numbers: 3.7 percent and 0.6 precent. The first is the latest one year increase in prices from the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The second is how much wages and salaries for private industry workers are reported to have fallen in the last year when adjusted to account for the rise in prices. Even Americans with increasing incomes are struggling with inflation. 任何想知道共和党为何在本周中期选举中面临历史性惨败的人，都该看看这两个数字：3.7% 和 0.6%。前者是最新公布的消费者物价指数（CPI）同比涨幅；后者是私营企业工人的工资与薪金在剔除物价上涨因素后，据报在过去一年里的下降幅度。即便收入正在增长的美国人，也在通胀中苦苦挣扎。 In the 2024 presidential election, Donald Trump, who was promising to focus on affordability, recaptured the White House, giving Republicans complete control of the federal government. Yet, a gallon of gas now costs about a dollar more than when President Trump was inaugurated. Other prices have increased as well. For example, food prices have risen since President Trump took office. 2024 年总统大选中，承诺聚焦「物价可负担性」的唐纳德·特朗普夺回白宫，让共和党完全掌控了联邦政府。然而，如今一加仑汽油比特朗普总统就职时贵了约一美元。其他物价也在上涨——例如，自特朗普总统上任以来食品价格已经上涨。 One factor causing food and fuel costs to rise is President Trump's breaking of his major campaign promise to oppose war. Iran predictably reacted to Israel and the US going to war against it by closing the Strait of Hormuz, resulting in reduced global oil supply. Increased fuel costs led to increased shipping costs, thus making food and other goods more expensive. 推高食品与燃料成本的一个因素，是特朗普总统违背了其反对战争的主要竞选承诺。伊朗对以色列和美国对其开战的反应不出所料——关闭霍尔木兹海峡，导致全球石油供应减少。燃料成本上升又推高了运输成本，从而使食品和其他商品变得更贵。 According to the "official figures" from the Pentagon, the Iran War has so far cost the government 47 billion dollars. A more accurate estimate of the cost of the war was made by Stephen Semler of the Security Policy Reform Institute. His study considers additional costs including the cost of damage to US bases in the war. According to his estimate, the government spent 103 billion dollars in just the conflict's first four months. 根据五角大楼的「官方数字」，伊朗战争迄今已耗费美国政府 470 亿美元。安全政策改革研究所的斯蒂芬·塞姆勒（Stephen Semler）给出了更准确的战争成本估算。他的研究计入了包括美军基地在战争中被毁成本在内的额外开支。据其估算，仅在冲突的头四个月，政府就花掉了 1030 亿美元。 The government's debt was already 38.5 trillion dollars before the Iran war, with over two trillion dollars of that debt incurred in 2025. 在伊朗战争之前，政府债务已达 38.5 万亿美元，其中逾 2 万亿美元是 2025 年新增的。 The Trump-era Republican record of debt and war makes Republicans, with few exceptions, unworthy of support. However, many Democrats offer an unacceptable alternative. 特朗普时代共和党在债务与战争上的记录，使得除极少数例外，共和党人不值得支持。然而，许多民主党人提供的替代方案同样不可接受。 Some Democratic candidates are openly socialist. Others who do not call themselves socialist do advocate socialist policies. Libertarians and America First conservatives may be able to work with even the most far left Democrat to end the Iran War and US taxpayer support for Israel's military actions against the Palestinians. However, even some Democrats who call themselves antiwar support "defensive" military aid to Israel, as well as continued aid for Ukraine. 有些民主党候选人公开标榜社会主义；另一些虽不自称社会主义者，却在鼓吹社会主义政策。自由至上主义者和「美国优先」保守派，或许能与哪怕最激进的左翼民主党人合作，以结束伊朗战争、终止美国纳税人资助以色列对巴勒斯坦人的军事行动。然而，即便是一些自称反战的民主党人，也支持对以色列的「防御性」军事援助，以及继续援助乌克兰。 Domestically, many Democratic candidates favor a massive expansion of the welfare state. For example, a number of them support a Canadian-style single payer health care system despite well-documented failures. Many also favor increased taxes on the rich, despite the economic damage this will cause and the fact that tax increases on the wealthy inevitably trickle down to the middle and working classes. 在内政方面，许多民主党候选人主张大规模扩张福利国家。例如，其中不少人支持加拿大式的单一支付医疗体系，尽管其失败早有充分记录。许多人也赞成对富人增税，无视这将造成的经济损害，也无视一个事实：对富人增税终将向下渗透到中产和工薪阶层。 Many progressives support modern monetary theory. This is an updated version of the old idea that the government need not worry about spending too much as long as the central bank can keep interest rates low and monetize the debt. They ignore that this increases the inflation tax, which hits the poor the hardest. This policy would eventually cause a dollar crisis, which would lead to a major economic crisis. President Trump's preferred monetary policy of perpetual interest rate cuts would also devalue the dollar and cause an economic crisis. 许多进步派支持现代货币理论（MMT）。这是老观念的新版本——只要央行能压低利率并将债务货币化，政府就不必担心开支过度。他们无视这会加重「通胀税」，而通胀税对穷人的打击最重。这种政策最终会引发美元危机，进而酿成一场严重的经济危机。特朗普总统偏好的「永续降息」货币政策，同样会令美元贬值并引发经济危机。 A choice between the Republicans' corporatism and the Democrats' socialism is a sad choice. The bright side is that the continued failure of both left- and right-wing authoritarianism will lead more people to embrace the only path to peace and prosperity: liberty. 在共和党的社团主义与民主党的社会主义之间做选择，是一个可悲的选择。好的一面是，左右两种威权主义的持续失败，会让更多人拥抱通往和平与繁荣的唯一道路：自由。 Note: The views expressed on Mises.org are not necessarily those of the Mises Institute. 注：Mises.org 所发表的观点不一定代表米塞斯研究所的立场。 作者简介 罗恩·保罗（Ron Paul），美国医生、政治人物，曾长期担任德克萨斯州联邦众议员，并三度参与总统竞选。他创办了自由基金会（Foundation for Rational Economics and Education）与罗恩·保罗和平与繁荣研究所，著有《End the Fed》《The Revolution: A Manifesto》《Liberty Defined》等书，长期为米塞斯研究院撰稿。 本文原载于米塞斯研究院（mises.org），中文译文仅供交流参考。

@总干事@2¹⁰

这池子好啊

对韭月还是放松警惕，阳历10月挣点钱就以为没事了，哪知3天就全吐回去了😂 也不知道民主党大胜扭转了法币资产的逻辑还是有人趁机借坡下驴，不过直觉上要进入大幅震荡区了。

​两只小熊一定要找狐狸分饼吗？ 想占小便宜的人越多，再分配制度就越难被废除，最终多数人只会被占便宜，还是大的便宜。

图一评论区，网友贴了图二🤣