Bad news: For this bull market, the only catalyst that (likely) matters for an epic rip is the US Federal government’s bitcoin bill. If it passes, then game on to the mid six figures. If it doesn’t, we might be peaking in the high 100k and then entering into another flailing few years as the narrative seeks to coalesce. Good news: It seems like this administration knows that it needs bitcoin to catalyze an economic turnaround. Things aren’t going very good with continuing with the status quo.

MSTR is likely to announce a $6B+ profit for1Q25 … earnings call is May 1. The photo is what Google AI says analysts are expecting. 👀 🍿

Is this the quarter that Saylor and MSTR post their ridiculous bitcoin gains using the newly approved accounting technique? Through April 1, ~500,000 Bitcoin bought at an average purchase price of ~$65k/btc … price on March 31 was $81k/btc. Will they post a $8B quarterly profit for 1Q25? How will Wall Street react? Will they get into the S&P500?

How much should we trust Saylor? That’s the question top of my mind tonight…

Capitalism works.

Holy crap this XXI might be the step that catalyzes the $1M Bitcoin bull run. True bitcoiners that we know will bitcoin the right way. Let’s see what Saylor does in response. Game on.

Bad news: the 4-year bitcoin cycle is dead Good news: the prevailing momentum will always be up.

How long until the first bitcoiner pope?

@Dr. Jeff how are you thinking about the MSTR covered call products coming onto the market? MSTY and IMST? Think they can sustain the dividends? Feels like these products are absorbing a fair amount of the capital that used to flow directly into bitcoin. Doesn’t surprise me that Bitcoin isn’t ripping since you have all of these derivative products now offering various ways to get exposure to bitcoin without the direct (volatile) exposure to the underlying asset.

Bitbonds don’t work. They won’t offer a reasonable enough yield. Nic Carter was right. There is no peaceful transition once the United States legitimizes bitcoin with actual purchases. Definitely not once they pass legislation requiring purchase of 1M bitcoin.

The United States has oil. China does not have oil. Important fact to remember during all this.

Marc Rowan on CNBC Squawk Box basically says there is no alternative to US debt markets for capital allocators. He assertively, even condescendingly states that China can’t do anything else with their capital other than participate in US Treasury markets. Many of us believe that Bitcoin stands poised to act as a liquidity sponge for (some of) that excess capital. Neutral reserve asset that rises above geopolitical posturing. The challenge becomes the ‘Impossible Trinity’ and the fact that Bitcoin represents the free flow of capital. So governments and central banks will have to choose either (1) fixed exchange rates for their currency or (2) independent monetary policy … What would China prefer? The ability to make their own monetary policy or a fixed exchange rate of their currency. Right now China uses capital controls to mostly achieve both. If they choose to allocate towards bitcoin China will have to choose. Interesting choices soon facing central banks & currency issuing governments.