How long until the first bitcoiner pope?

@less how are you thinking about the MSTR covered call products coming onto the market? MSTY and IMST? Think they can sustain the dividends? Feels like these products are absorbing a fair amount of the capital that used to flow directly into bitcoin. Doesn’t surprise me that Bitcoin isn’t ripping since you have all of these derivative products now offering various ways to get exposure to bitcoin without the direct (volatile) exposure to the underlying asset.

Bitbonds don’t work. They won’t offer a reasonable enough yield. Nic Carter was right. There is no peaceful transition once the United States legitimizes bitcoin with actual purchases. Definitely not once they pass legislation requiring purchase of 1M bitcoin.

The United States has oil. China does not have oil. Important fact to remember during all this.

Marc Rowan on CNBC Squawk Box basically says there is no alternative to US debt markets for capital allocators. He assertively, even condescendingly states that China can’t do anything else with their capital other than participate in US Treasury markets. Many of us believe that Bitcoin stands poised to act as a liquidity sponge for (some of) that excess capital. Neutral reserve asset that rises above geopolitical posturing. The challenge becomes the ‘Impossible Trinity’ and the fact that Bitcoin represents the free flow of capital. So governments and central banks will have to choose either (1) fixed exchange rates for their currency or (2) independent monetary policy … What would China prefer? The ability to make their own monetary policy or a fixed exchange rate of their currency. Right now China uses capital controls to mostly achieve both. If they choose to allocate towards bitcoin China will have to choose. Interesting choices soon facing central banks & currency issuing governments.

@jack mallers I’m hearing you’ve started to release Strike’s bitcoin backed loan product. Congratulations! The terms look about as favorable as anything I’ve seen on the market…absolute boss. Where can I learn more about it? So far nothing is showing up on my app UX… does that mean I don’t qualify for it based on my level of purchasing (so far) or does that mean it is not yet offered in my jurisdiction? Regardless, really cool development for Strike … bravo!

Went to install a replacement toilet in our 1960s rancher. Long story short: it seemed more involved than I was anticipating, and my situation this week would benefit from the convenience of a quick, dreamless install so I called a plumber and they showed up within 30 minutes of my call. Plumber - nice guy - proceeds to tell me, “oh yeah, you basically have it right, but all you need is a new flange (a $40 part). Then put the wax ring down (which we already have). Then mount the toilet (which we already have).” He then proceeded to quote $500. For at most 30 minutes of work - probably 15 minutes for him - and a $40 (retail) part. To install a product that cost a couple hundred dollars. This is symptomatic a failure of a currency. The fact that anyone would consider paying that type of rate for that type of work that would take that amount of time is ludicrous. I’ll be installing a toilet tonight after my daughter goes to bed.

Masters week really is the best week.

Any report/article about alternatives to US Treasuries that doesn’t mention Bitcoin should be filed away as propaganda. https://archive.is/dZqva

What politicians will be the first to raise money and save using bitcoin? Having the kitty full and compounding at exponential rates will usher in the most flush politicians that have ever run for office. Whether this is a good thing or not is irrelevant, bitcoin is for enemies.

Why don’t podcasters post links to their podcasts over here? I would zap episodes I find particularly interesting and informative.

I’m a huge believer in Bitcoin. And I respect the theory behind MSTR’s strategy: accumulate, HODL, and increase leverage against the hardest asset known to man. However, I’m still skeptical of MicroStrategy’s structure until they offer transparent, verifiable proof of reserves. The new STRK & STRF share class dividend mechanics are clever. They’re clearly signaling loyalty to long-term Bitcoin holders and creating a new kind of financial product to allow bitcoiners a priority claim within their capital stack…a priority claim that offers a yield. In theory, this is financial innovation capturing an intellectual asymmetry, exploiting an arbitrage in free market efficiency. But without public, cryptographically provable bitcoin reserves, MSTR is positioned more as a black box, just a black box we want to believe in. Bitcoin is trustless. Public companies are not. Show us the keys.

We just don’t seem to be having fun this cycle. The memes and video compilations and overall social overlay lack the fun factor. Make bull runs fun again. #bitcoin

One of the most fascinating dynamics to watch over the next decade will be the interplay between Bitcoin and government-issued bonds. From a purely logical standpoint, these two instruments are fundamentally incompatible under current market dynamics—especially for maturities of five years or longer. For treasury bonds with 5+ year durations to remain competitive with Bitcoin, they’d need to offer yields north of 20%. That’s not a forecast—it’s math. The idea of Bitcoin-backed bonds doesn’t resolve this either. If an investor believes in Bitcoin’s trajectory over a 5+ year horizon, the rational choice is to hold the asset directly—not lend it out or buy structured products that are mathematically guaranteed to underperform. In other words, the “risk mitigation” case for Bitcoin-backed bonds collapses when the alternative is simply owning Bitcoin. So what happens next? Either market participants will need to be emotionally persuaded—manipulated, even—or governments and institutions will need to reframe the entire narrative around sovereign debt and monetary alternatives. How (or if) that messaging is managed over the coming years will be one of the great financial psychodramas of our time.

@ODELL re: your comment on Klarna being 0% … based on my experience, at least for vehicles, if you get zero percent financing the overall cost of the vehicle is more than if you’re paying cash upfront. They build the cost of financing into the price of the underlying asset sale.