GM "The shortest route to wealth is the contempt of wealth." — Seneca

The Sixth Circuit just ruled against Kalshi, siding with Ohio and Tennessee that their sports event contracts fall under state gambling law. It is being argued as a gambling case. It is really about whether a private market is allowed to publish a probability. A sportsbook and a prediction market print the same number on the screen. Only one of them also tells you what the crowd believes about a rate decision, an election, a war. Hayek's point was never that prices are correct. It is that they carry knowledge no single authority holds. A court can shut a market. It cannot unlearn the number.

Bitcoin is 33 percent below its October 2025 high and the fear and greed index still reads 74. Greed, with price a third down and a year of drawdown behind it — that is not sentiment, it is structure. People who own keys don't sell them because a chart went sideways. That is what sound money does to time preference. It makes patience the default instead of the exception.