When you sell bitcoin, you lower the price. Immediately. When you buy something with bitcoin, you still lower the price but on a delay controlled by the receiver. But it is this real-world-bitcoin-use that delays the price drop that smears out the 4-year cycle behavior in bitcoin price…thus the key to decreased volatility is increased usage. That’s gonna take a while.

Very much enjoyed the noderunners conference in Arnhem, NL. Real bitcoiners, real learners, and a really cool venue. I’ve never gotten to spend so much bitcoin IRL before! Of course it’s a spend and replace kind of deal :) @Noderunners Conference

In Frankfurt airport awaiting my train to Arnhem…for

Noderunners

Noderunners Conference 2026

Bitcoin maximalists unite in the historic Koepelgevangenis Arnhem. Join the orange-pilled Noderunners community on September 19th 2026 for a Bitcoi...

Anyone going to noderunners in Arnhem, Netherlands this weekend?

Noderunners

Noderunners Conference 2026

Bitcoin maximalists unite in the historic Koepelgevangenis Arnhem. Join the orange-pilled Noderunners community on September 19th 2026 for a Bitcoi...

Bitcoin price drops on failure of clarity act. You heard it here first. If it was going to pass, the price pump would have been higher by now.

Bitcoin price isn’t something you can predict. Even looking at past patterns hints that the future won’t be the same. But what does seem to be durable is the 4 year cycle. But,if you look carefully, quantiles cross…which is another way of saying lower highs and higher lows. You can do fancy math t reorder the quantiles (image 2), but the fact remains: the future is full of uncertainties, especially price…but timing the cycle broadly is an easier target to hit.

Measurably better 4 year cycle fit if we censor some time around the debut of Plan B stock to flow model…

I suspect this is going to matter a lot. May all good hearts do with this information what they may…It is my firm belief that Bitcoin will change the world…someday.