This weeks intel update is out 👍

//The Wire//2300Z October 17, 2025// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: NARCO SUBMARINE SUNK IN CARIBBEAN. HAMAS FIGHTER ARRESTED IN LOUISIANA. WHITE HOUSE SOFTENS STANCE ON CHINA TRADE WAR.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Caribbean: The Pentagon announced the targeting of another vessel off the coast of Venezuela. The footage of the strike has not been released yet, however President Trump stated during a press conference this morning that the strike was not on a fastboat, but rather a semi-submersible craft transporting large amounts of narcotics. This strike is also the first to result in survivors; two individuals were rescued from the water by a US Navy helicopter after the vessel was sunk. Analyst Comment: The footage of this strike will be interesting to see, it if is ever released. One of the reasons that it hasn't been released yet is possibly due to OPSEC concerns...the Navy probably doesn't want narcotics traffickers to know what their submarines look like when viewed with American sensors. -HomeFront- Washington D.C. - Following last week's announcement of a 100% blanket tariff on China, President Trump made slightly contradictory statements yesterday regarding what the general plan is. In follow-on interviews, Trump stated that the tariff is "not sustainable, but that's what the number is", but also responded positively to China overall, stating that things were going well and the meeting with President Xi Jinping in South Korea will continue as planned previously. Louisiana: This afternoon the FBI announced the arrest of a Hamas fighter that allegedly took part in the October 7th attacks in Israel. Mahmoud Amin Ya’qub al-Muhtadi was arrested in Lafayette after having gained legal entry to the United States in 2024 (though he did lie about his alleged career as a fighter in Gaza in order to get a legal visa fraudulently). Analyst Comment: This marks the first major arrest by AG Bondi's Joint Task Force 10-7, which was stood up in February with the goal of investigating the Oct 7th attacks. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: Of note, another round of "No Kings" protests have been scheduled for tomorrow, October 18th. So far, the event organizers appear to be re-using the same map from last time; most of the protests are carbon-copies of the events that were planned during the first round of protests. This strongly indicates that, like the first time, most of these protests won't happen and the online map is mostly meant to make the movement seem larger than it really is. Even so, while this series of events itself is probably a giant pile of nothing, there are many different social/political groups that are extremely upset right now, and groups in larger cities might use this weekend event as a catalyst for their own desires. ANTIFA will probably break things as usual, and many different senior retirement homes are likely to take part in the events like the first major No Kings protest day. Small arms attacks are likely, if nothing more than from uncoordinated security (such as the Salt Lake City shooting during the initial protests). Other concerns that could cause more kinetic situations lie in the world of social media and the lack of any cooling of tensions among far-left groups. In a podcast two days ago, former CNN anchor Don Lemon encouraged illegal immigrants to obtain firearms and violently resist ICE deportation operations. Brushing aside the minor detail that it is a felony for illegals to possess firearms due to being criminals, this does highlight the risks moving forward. Like it or not, people do indeed listen to influencers, on the political left and right. When an issue as vitriolic as illegal immigration comes on the scene, the potential is high for lone-wolf attacks to be carried out by some mentally ill individual who listened to the internet. The recent sniper attack on the ICE facility in Dallas is evidence of this, and the countless vehicle ramming attacks carried out by mentally unstable individuals points to the sheer number of people who are interested in carrying out further violence. Right now there are almost zero indicators that this risk will be reduced, and most people encouraging these attacks (as well as those carrying out the attacks themselves) have shown no interest whatsoever in toning things down. Analyst: S2A1 Research:

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//The Wire//2300Z October 16, 2025// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: MULTIPLE IED ATTACKS STRIKE ECUADOR AS CONFLICT COMBATING ILLEGAL MINING INTENSIFIES. MIDDLE EAST PEACE DEAL ON UNCERTAIN GROUND AS TENSIONS CONTINUE RISING ON ALL SIDES. VENEZUELAN MILITARY SHIP REPORTEDLY BECOMES GROUNDED DURING TRAINING MISSION.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Ecuador: The situation continues to deteriorate following a crackdown initiative targeting illegal mining operations. Many explosions have been reported over the past few days as mining groups affiliated with the Los Lobos cartel have taken to using their mining explosives in order to create IEDs targeting people and critical infrastructure. Two bridges were blown up yesterday in Guayaquil, and a Vehicle-Borne IED (VBIED) was detonated in the same city targeting the city mall. After this blast, another large IED was discovered in a vehicle somewhere in the city, which failed to explode. Analyst Comment: These IED attacks are the latest in a long series of woes in Ecuador. The situation sharply deteriorated back in 2023 with the assassination of Fernando Villavincencio, a Presidential candidate that was murdered just a few days before he was expected to win the election. This made a bad situation worse and Ecuador spiraled down into a defacto state of civil war, with belligerents mostly being aligned with the Los Choneros cartel and government forces. Over the past few months, prison riots, mass killings via gangs, and now IED blasts have become more common. The connection to why this matters to the US, is that back in 2018 one of the main power-players in Ecuador was the Tren de Aragua criminal syndicate. Venezuela: Yesterday a Venezuelan naval vessel ran aground off the coast while conducting a training mission. The ARV Capana (an amphibious landing ship) was observed by locals running aground on a sand bar, which resulted in her becoming stuck for a few hours. Middle East: The situation has remained both tense and chaotic as the return of captives' remains to Israel and various other developments continue to be a sticking point for lasting peace. Hamas officials have stated that there aren't any more remains that they can get to at the moment, which has caused tension. Analyst Comment: Major offensives remain tabled by both sides for now, however Hamas has conducted many mass-executions of alleged collaborators and/or spies, which has drawn the ire of President Trump who went as far as to threaten direct American intervention in Gaza (comments which he reversed-course on during a later press call). While that possibility is probably more of a knee-jerk threat than anything (after all, Hamas executing their own people for allegedly being spies doesn't really violate the peace agreement itself). Nevertheless, no one is out of the woods yet on this accord, and the situation can certainly flare back up into a big problem once again at the slightest provocation by any party. -HomeFront- Washington D.C. - This morning the White House announced that President Trump spoke with President Putin by phone, and that the conversation was very long and productive. Based on the description of the call as posted to President Trump's social media account, the call was positive and resulted in the scheduling of direct talks between the United States and Russia regarding the ending of the war in Ukraine. Analyst Comment: The implementation of higher-level direct talks with Russia is a positive sign, which has come about after weeks of decreasing relations regarding the war. The implementation of these talks also casts a bit of doubt on President Trump's previous statements regarding pushing Ukraine to conduct more offensives. Lately, there's been a lot of talk on the war by everyone involved, so it's anyone's guess as to whether or not all parties are interested in settling this war, but this will be a situation to monitor closely as talks continue. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: As one might expect, Venezuela has not acknowledged the Capana incident, nor are they likely to do so. Due to the nature of the information, at the moment all we have to go on is the standard shaky-cam footage provided by eyewitness observers, along with some aerial footage which does seem to show the vessel sitting lower in the water than she normally would. Considering that embarrassing incidents like this are often played up for effect by Venezuela's adversaries, the reports that the vessel has sunk are probably not true, at least not yet. Nevertheless, this does highlight the high-stakes nature of the fight, should war be the chosen course of action. As comedic as it sometimes is to see a nation flounder their opportunity to act tough, Venezuela is indeed preparing for war at a breakneck pace. Many coastal roads have been fortified to prepare for amphibious landings, and many border crossings are now impassable due to checkpoints. Clearly Venezuelan naval forces think they have a chance, and various army units have also been featured on local TV stations demonstrating their rapid-deployment capabilities. Most of Venezuela's uniformed armed service branches have been in a constant state of exercise since the American flotilla arrived off the coast, and even though war is still not an absolute certainty, Venezuela is certainly preparing for the worse case scenario. Analyst: S2A1 Research:

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//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z October 15, 2025// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: CARIBBEAN WAR CONTINUES AS PENTAGON SINKS FASTBOAT AND STRATEGIC AVIATION CONDUCTS SHOW OF FORCE OPERATIONS. CONFLICT BETWEEN PAKISTAN AND AFGHANISTAN CONTINUES. SECWAR'S PLANE SUFFERS EMERGENCY WHILE RETURNING TO USA.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Afghanistan: The conflict between the Taliban and Pakistan flared up again overnight, before both sides agreed to another ceasefire. Despite the various statements of ceasefire by both sides, random skirmishes continue. Pakistan conducted airstrikes in Kabul once again, and Afghan forces conducted random skirmishes at a few border checkpoints along the Durand Line that designates the border between the two nations. Ireland: A mass stabbing was reported in the vicinity of Grattan Wood in Dublin. One individual was killed, and two others wounded during the attack. No further details have been provided at this time. Analyst Comment: Local media has reported that this attack took place at a "residence", which is misleading. The location of the attack was inside a care home that houses underage migrants. Caribbean: Yesterday the War Department announced the kinetic targeting of another fastboat off the coast of Venezuela, bringing the total to 5x vessels sunk so far during this campaign. United Kingdom: This afternoon, American Secretary of War Pete Hegseth made an unplanned emergency landing due to an incident involving his aircraft. The SECWAR was returning to the US from Belgium when a crack appeared in the windscreen of the aircraft, which possibly caused a depressurization incident. The pilots made an emergency descent to roughly 6,000 ft AGL, and proceeded to land safely without further incident. -HomeFront- Washington D.C. - DC Judge Kendra Briggs authorized the release of the two individuals who assaulted Edward Coristine, after sentencing them to probation. Both individuals (who have not been identified as they are allegedly juveniles) will face zero jail or juvenile detention time for their violent attack on Coristine, who was a high-ranking member of the DOGE team investigating government fraud during the initial months of President Trump's term. Coristine had intervened to stop a carjacking at a parking garage in DC, which resulted in a gang of roughly a dozen "juveniles" beating him, breaking his nose during the assault. The two individuals prosecuted in this case were the only two in the group that were caught. North Carolina: Following a series of attempted murders in Charlotte on Sunday, the individual who conducted the stabbing of two people has been released from jail. Paulette Gibson (who has an extensive criminal history) was released from jail on $20,000 bail, roughly 48 hours after nearly stabbing two people to death during a street fight. Analyst Comment: In the wake of the exceptionally brutal murder of Iryna Zarutska, North Carolina has passed legislation to stop the practice of cashless bail and overhaul the bail system so as to reduce the likelihood that violent offenders would be released. This was a hotly contested bill that required a veto-proof majority to pass (as the Governor threatened repeatedly to veto it). Eventually the bill was passed and became law on October 1st, but nevertheless, Gibson was released on bail anyway. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: This morning plane watchers noted the presence of several B-52 Stratofortress bombers conducting operations just north of Venezuela. So far the War Department has not commented on this development, and it's not clear as to if these transponder pings are genuine or the result of other platforms spoofing the identities of these aircraft. If genuine, this is undoubtedly a show of force. No operational deployment of B-52's would involve the pilots leaving their transponders turned on, so this was 100% intended to be picked up by the Venezuelans. A secondary goal of these flights could either be general training for future bombings in Venezuela, or an attempt to lull Venezuelan forces into a false sense of security. B-52's aren't exactly hard to see on even the ancient Early Warning radar sites that Venezuela has at their disposal (though it's assessed that probably half of these radar sites are not operational). Nevertheless, these flights, combined with the continual targeting of fastboats by sea, is adding to the steady increase in likelihood that a much wider war may be on the horizon. Analyst: S2A1 Research:

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//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z October 14, 2025// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: SUSPICIOUS FIRE STRIKES ITALIAN MONASTERY. ISRAEL/HAMAS DEAL ON ROCKY GROUND DUE TO DELAYS IN RETURN OF CAPTIVES' REMAINS TO ISRAEL.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Italy: A catastrophic fire was reported at the Monastery of Bernaga just north of Milan on Sunday. All 21 nuns were evacuated from the convent without any injuries, however the fire consumed most of monastery, including the storage rooms used to house priceless paintings. Analyst Comment: Random church fires around Europe are disturbingly common these days, but the timing of this fire is exceptionally suspicious. This monastery was associated with St. Carlo Acutis, who was recently canonized by the Vatican three weeks ago. This fire broke out on his very first Feast Day at the same monastery at which he received his first Communion. The cause of the fire is not known, however local sources have implied it may have been an electrical failure of some kind. Due to the delicate nature of such fires, a more thorough investigation will be needed to determine the cause of the blaze. Middle East: The much-hyped peace accords have reached rocky ground as Israeli forces have cut Gaza aid by 50%. Israeli forces have claimed that Hamas has violated the ceasefire agreement by being too slow to return the remains of the deceased prisoners still in their possession. This afternoon the Red Cross did confirm that four coffins of remains were transferred into their custody this morning, and the remains of the 24 other prisoners will be transferred into the hands of the Red Cross as soon as they are able to arrange transport through the completely destroyed parts of Gaza. Analyst Comment: Right now, the sheer destruction of Gaza appears to be the biggest barrier to recovering remains. Obviously nobody trusts statements by Hamas officials, however they have claimed that many of the remains are buried in underground locations that are currently off-limits due to under Israeli control, meaning that Hamas cannot physically get to the locations to recover remains. This of course would easily be solved by conveying the GPS coordinates of remains to Red Cross officials managing the exchange, however a very real concern still exists...it's possible that Hamas themselves don't have control of all of the hostage remains. It is widely known that Israeli forces struck several underground tunnels that were (probably unknowingly) being used to hold captives. This is indeed why there are dead captives in the first place. As such, a tunnel collapsing and all hostages and militants alike being killed in the strike means that the exact position of human remains might be exceptionally hard to find. Considering the history of warfare itself, there is not a single conflict in the history of the world in which all casualties and all remains have been recovered. Of course, this conflict is quite a bit different as the remains that are sought are those of prisoners (i.e. noncombatants), but still, this might be a major sticking point if Hamas cannot actually find all of the prisoners' remains that they had at the start of the conflict. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: In the tech world, today is the last day that Microsoft will support the Windows 10 operating system. While this seems rather innocuous, this could be a rather big problem. Microsoft is known for doing their customers dirty just on principle, but in this case the problems that could result from this could quite significantly affect society. When Windows 8 stopped being supported, only 2-3% of users were still using it, with the overwhelming majority of users upgrading to Windows 10 by the time Windows 8 was obsolete. As of this month, roughly 40% of all Windows users are still using Windows 10...which stops being supported today. This means that security patches will be few and far between, with Microsoft charging customers on an individual basis for occasional security updates. One of the major reasons for the huge number of customers not upgrading yet is the lack of much backward compatibility with older computers. In short, most older laptops can't run Windows 11; even laptops that are only a couple of years old can't run it at all. A lot of customers hit that magic "Check for updates" button, only to find that their computer can't support Windows 11. This continues Microsoft's legendary practice of planned obsolescence, which forces customers to buy a new machine that will work with Windows 11. This is where the risk comes in; if a one-man IT department at a small company tells the higher ups that their computers need to be updated, but they need to buy all new computers, the company will probably put off this decision as late as possible. Thus almost half of Windows users resisting the upgrade. This statistic is probably not just individuals...but a lot of corporate customers as well. This means that a massive portion of Windows users are still using an operating system that won't be patched if security issues are found. This isn't just a concern for private citizens, but also for the huge bulk of companies that haven't yet upgraded or switched to a different operating system. As such, when this many customers (particularly the corporate customers) are using an operating system that is no longer supported, there's no telling what vulnerabilities could come to light: Do not be surprised if in a few weeks we read about a major data breach or some other catastrophic infrastructure failure that is a direct result of a lazy IT department at some random obscure company not updating their company to Windows 11. Or more likely, not wanting to allocate funding to buy brand new shiny laptops for the entire company, just to avoid the security vulnerabilities posed by an operating system reaching end of life. One would think that any entity that is involved in the daily propping-up of society should have already transitioned to a secure operating system years ago. However, as is often demonstrated these days "should" does not mean "is". There's no way to predict when or where vulnerabilities will be exploited by malign actors, but there will probably be a global spike in ransomware attacks (for example) over the next few weeks, simply due to the sheer number of computers still using an operating system that is no longer receiving regular security patches. Analyst: S2A1 Research:

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//The Wire//2300Z October 13, 2025// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: PRESIDENT TRUMP AND OTHER HEADS OF STATE ARRIVE IN EGYPT FOR SIGNING OF PEACE AGREEMENT. COUP IN MADAGASCAR RESULTS IN PRESIDENT FLEEING COUNTRY. AFGHAN/PAKISTAN BORDER CLASHES FLARE UP BRIEFLY. NETHERLANDS ENACTS WARTIME POLICY TO CONTROL CHINESE TECH COMPANY.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Europe: Yesterday evening the Dutch government announced that they have taken more direct control of the Nexperia corporation, which was carried out under a rarely-used wartime law. Nexperia is a Chinese-owned semiconductor chip manufacturer, which mostly provides computer chips for consumer-grade electronics. The Dutch government enacted the Availability of Goods Act, which enables the Netherlands to halt actions by the company that are deemed to be against the national defense interests of the nation. Analyst Comment: This is a big deal as it's yet another indicator of wartime preparations continuing. While most may think that a war with China will just involve the US, and be confined to the Far East, this move highlights the global nature of a potential conflict involving China. This move is not a straight-up seizure of all assets, the company is continuing to produce products as before. This decision is simply to take administrative control of the company, should the board of executives make decisions that are counter to the national security needs of the Netherlands. Western Asia: A brief war erupted and was concluded between Pakistan and Afghanistan over the weekend. Afghan forces conducted multiple small arms attacks on Pakistani border positions. Pakistan responded in kind by shelling random locations inside Afghanistan. After a few hours, Taliban forces withdrew and Pakistani forces stopped shelling. Middle East: President Trump arrived in Egypt for the various diplomatic events pertaining to the Gaza peace deal being signed. Various other heads of state from around the region (and Europe) also gathered for the celebratory peace summit. Analyst Comment: So far only one international incident has been the result of proceedings, with Turkey's Erdogan refusing to take part if Netanyahu was planning to show up as well. Allegedly, a mid-flight phone call was placed by Erdogan's team to pressure Netanyahu to not take part in the event, otherwise Erdogan's plane would turn around and return to Turkey. Netanyahu agreed to this request and has not flown to Egypt to take part in the events. Other than that brief squabble, nothing of note has taken place yet regarding the signing of the peace accord, and the various diplomatic speeches and events have carried on without much conflict. Africa: The government of Madagascar has collapsed as a general state of unrest reached it's peak over the weekend. President Andry Rajoelina was evacuated from the country by French military forces as rioters compromised the security situation around the Presidential residence. Analyst Comment: This is the latest nation to fall to the "Zoomer Uprising", a global trend of youth movements rising up to overthrow their respective third-world governments. One of the first to display this trend was the coup in Nepal a few weeks ago, which was carried out largely by the younger elements of the population. In Madagascar, the situation is very similar, with grievances being centered around electricity and water shortages which have gotten worse over the past few years. -HomeFront- Oregon: Over the weekend counter-ICE protests and demonstrations continued, with a few old tactics being implemented. Namely, nudity. A city-wide naked bike ride and "die in" protest was arranged yesterday, which disrupted traffic for a few hours on major roads, as well as outside the ICE facility. California: Concerns of election fraud have come to light following the receipt of mail-in ballots regarding the Proposition 50 redistricting vote. Voters in some districts have observed that if a person votes "NO" (as in, votes against the redistricting efforts), and inserts their paper ballot into the envelope a certain way, their vote can be seen from the outside via a hole that is punched in the envelope. This has led many to believe that this is a very convenient way to physically destroy (or just not count) ballots which can easily be identified en masse as counter to the intended electoral outcome. Similarly, Governor Newsom signed SB 79 today, which allows rezoning of certain areas near public transportation hubs to allow for high-density housing. This bill works in conjunction with SB 529 (passed earlier this summer), which allowed the government of California to purchase the properties that were destroyed as a result of the Palisades Fire. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: The spat between Afghanistan and Pakistan was the classic style of war that is commonly undertaken in the region. Enormous troop movement to border checkpoints, by which both sides shoot at each other at well-beyond the maximum effective range of their weapons. After a few hours of shooting randomly in each other's general direction, both sides back off and declare victory. Casualty figures vary, with both sides claiming hundreds of enemy KIA, however right now it's not clear as to how many casualties actually occurred. As to whether or not this will escalate into a more widespread conflict, at the moment this appears unlikely. The Taliban had to do something to save face from Pakistan bombing Kabul, and shooting up border checkpoints is a very common way the Taliban has responded to such in the past. The Taliban has no real way of projecting power beyond their own borders (their main way of doing such is via small-scale terrorist cells slipping over the mountains and into Pakistan), so the ball is in Pakistan's court if they want to escalate the situation. Analyst: S2A1 Research:

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//END REPORT//

This week's intel update is out!

//The Wire//2300Z October 10, 2025// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: EARTHQUAKES STRIKE PHILIPPINES. INDIA WELCOMES TALIBAN DELEGATION, RE-ESTABLISHES RELATIONS WITH AFGHANISTAN. WHITE HOUSE ANNOUNCES NEW BLANKET TARIFF OF 100% ON CHINESE GOODS.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Philippines: Yesterday evening an earthquake with an estimated magnitude of 7.4 struck just off the coast of the southern province of Davao Oriental. Shortly after the first, a second 6.9 magnitude earthquake was reported in the same area, along with several aftershocks from both quakes. Damage surveys are still ongoing, and so far 6x fatalities have been reported as a result of these earthquakes. Southern Asia: Following the Pakistani airstrikes in the city of Kabul yesterday, Taliban leadership has signaled a desire to increase their relations with India. The Taliban's Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi arrived in India this morning for a pre-arranged diplomatic visit. India's Foreign Minister received the Taliban, and stated that India will be re-opening their embassy in Afghanistan to establish relations with the new Taliban government. Analyst Comment: Interesting relationships are forming on the subcontinent. India will ally with anyone who hates Pakistan, so cozying up to the Taliban makes sense from their perspective, especially since India does not share a land border with Afghanistan. However this may be an ill advised move in the long run, considering that the United States is not yet interested in restoring relations with the Taliban, and some of India's other trade partners might have a bone to pick with the Afghan government. -HomeFront- Washington D.C. - This afternoon the White House announced a new tariff on most goods from China. Starting November 1st, a 100% tax will be applied on top of all other tariffs (which vary by type of goods). Analyst Comment: Since the election, the roller coaster of tit-for-tat tariffs between the United States and China has been, in a word, insanity. Overall, it's challenging to judge who has come out on top, economically speaking. The White House came out swinging with the tariffs right after the election, while China has (in typical fashion) taken a more coy approach that has been slow to build. This latest conflagration is likely the result of China introducing export controls for precious metals and rare-earth materials such as lithium. President Trump has fired back by instituting this 100% tariff, and also introducing export controls on "critical software". As a reminder, the White House still hasn't really clarified their position on the "600,000 Chinese student" scandal from last month, so if the United States remains committed to importing hundreds of thousands of Chinese citizens into the exact career fields that are writing the software in the first place, it's extremely unlikely that export limitations on software will matter at all. Nevertheless, the trade war has kicked back up again so more economic turmoil will probably be the result in the short term. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: In the Middle East, the peace agreement seems to be holding as much as can be expected so far. Yesterday the White House confirmed that American troops will be deployed to Israel to oversee the peace agreement. Officials have stated that no American troops will be deployed to Gaza, however troops will be directly involved in mitigating conflicts between Palestinian authorities and Israeli troops. Per the deal, roughly half of Gaza will remain in a state of "buffer zone" more or less under Israeli control and the IDF pulled back across the line of control yesterday afternoon. Various other Middle Eastern nations also have pledged to invest troops in the management of the peace agreement, most notably Egypt, Qatar, and the UAE, and various third-party nations (such as Turkey) have allowed aid to begin flowing into Gaza more directly. Analyst: S2A1 Research:

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//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z October 9, 2025// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: PEACE DEAL ALLEGEDLY SETTLED IN MIDDLE EAST. PAKISTAN BLAMED FOR KABUL AIRSTRIKES. NATIONAL GUARD PRESENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN CHICAGO.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Afghanistan: This afternoon multiple explosions were reported in downtown Kabul as Pakistan carried out airstrikes in the capitol city. Analyst Comment: So far, Pakistan has not confirmed the strikes, however tensions between the two nations have been rapidly deteriorating for several months. The two were hosting diplomatic talks as recently as today regarding the suppressing of terrorist activity, which has been making it's way from Afghanistan, through the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and into Pakistan proper. These talks failed after Pakistan was not convinced the Taliban was serious about internally policing their own people with regards to counterterrorism. -HomeFront- USA: Early this morning a large-scale Verizon outage was reported around the country. The outage lasted about an hour, and no cause for the outage has been disclosed by Verizon. Illinois: National Guard deployments to Chicago have continued to trickle in over the past few days. A total of roughly 500 soldiers are now deployed in static defense roles to provide security for federal buildings. The ICE detention facility in Broadview (the site that has been a major target for riots) has also been reinforced and fortified more over the past few weeks. Washington D.C. - Yesterday evening the White House announced that both Hamas and Israel have signed the peace agreement as proposed by President Trump. The deal now moves through various phases involving hostage release/prisoner swaps and the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza. In a televised address, Khalil al-Hayya (the highest-ranking Hamas leader that is still alive) declared an end to the war. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: Anytime a tenuous "peace" is agreed to in the Middle East, a general state of uneasiness follows forthrightly. Of course, years of war coming to an alleged end is a positive outcome for the stability of the region, but one must take care to not count the chickens before the eggs are hatched. Despite the overall tone among many being the welcoming of peace, there are still many on both sides (especially those who aren't actually in the warzone) who do not want peace. Many different malign actors seek to capitalize on both genuine and false-flag attacks around the world, so keeping one's head on a swivel in the homeland would be wise as the ceasefire goes into effect. Whether this cessation of hostilities will hold is anyone's guess, but as of right now the war is officially over. This afternoon the White House stated President Trump's intent to travel to the Middle East this weekend, where he is expected to take part in ceremonies of the peace agreement's final stages, as well as to participate in various festivities surrounding the return of any prisoners to Israel. In the United States, additional concerns to be mindful of are how this alleged peace will impact protest seasons. In short, when one front closes, resources can be shifted to other lines of effort. Since the war began, various pro-Palestine demonstrators have been occupied with their demonstrations and protests have been fairly routine in many American cities. If this peace holds, those same individuals will probably have more time to shift to the latest cause to rally against...ICE operations. This is not to say that the more kinetic and disruptive pro-Palestine demonstrations will stop (they certainly won't), but right now in the US this is a major cause to rally around for many. Similarly, if the peace deal does not hold, these demonstrations will probably shift into being kinetic again, just as these efforts were during the height of the war. Analyst: S2A1 Research:

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//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z October 8, 2025// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: TENSIONS HEAT UP IN CHICAGO AS LOCAL FORCES RESIST FEDERAL POLICING OF CRIME. DC CHURCH BOMBER DETAILS RELEASED, INDICATING INITIAL REPORTS WERE MISLEADING. DOJ TARGETS 2A GROUP AS JUDGE ORDERS DOXING OF ALL NONPROFIT MEMBERS.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -HomeFront- Illinois: The situation in Chicago remains tense following a general state of unrest surrounding illegal immigration policing efforts. Over the past few days, several incidents have taken place, which have contributed to the declining security situation around the city. A few days ago, a vehicle ramming attack was conducted on an ICE convoy transiting through the city. During the incident, a general state of chaos developed and ICE agents requested local police to assist with the incident. This call for assistance arrived at dispatch, where a stand-down order was given. All Chicago Police Officers were ordered to not assist ICE agents, even though a state of life and death was already underway. Analyst Comment: There has been a lot of media spin regarding this incident, but the audio tape of the radio traffic of this incident confirms beyond all doubt that the stand down order was given. As a result of this incident, a substantial federal response should be expected. A few hundred National Guard soldiers have been deployed throughout Chicago as of last week, all of which have been emplaced as security forces to guard federal buildings. However, since the relationship between local and federal officials has become antagonistic (per the orders of the Mayor and Governor), it would not be surprising to see some much heavier forces on the ground in Chicago very soon. Washington D.C. - Following the arrest of a man outside St. Matthew's Cathedral on Sunday, more details have come to light regarding the case. Police initially reported that they made contact with the man after he set up a camping tent on the front steps of the church before Mass. After causing a scene, it was initially reported by authorities that the man was searched, and a Molotov incendiary device was found. However, this was not the full story...a search of his possessions revealed that the man had over 200 homemade IEDs, along with a manifesto specifically referencing his desire to target Supreme Court Justices (along with a longer list of other targets). Analyst Comments: The details of this incident are a far cry from what DC Metro Police initially reported. Authorities also left out the details that they never even made contact with the man regarding his tent; when police tried to approach him initially, he threatened to throw an IED at them. To get the man to stand down and surrender, police had to agree to read the man's manifesto, which they did, ending the incident. Despite the scale and context of this attempted terror attack, the DoJ has not made any comment on whether Louis Geri will face federal terrorism charges. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: Also in Washington, controversy has emerged following the targeting of a Second Amendment nonprofit organization by the Department of Justice. The Second Amendment Foundation (SAF) is an organization that launches lawsuits against entities which restrict gun rights. Recently, they launched a lawsuit against the federal government, challenging the federal ban on FFL's from selling handguns to individuals under the age of 21. During this lawsuit, discrepancies arose, which required an injunction to be filed regarding who was involved in the lawsuit. During the legalistic developments in this case, DoJ attorneys were able to convince a federal judge that all of the members of the SAF were part of the lawsuit...not just the nonprofit itself, or those invested in the lawsuit. In short, what this means is that a federal judge has ordered a gun rights non profit to turn over a list of all of their members...which is a de facto database of gun owners. By extension, this also has larger considerations due to the precedent that has been set...if any company or nonprofit sues someone, this precedent means that the nonprofit will be required to hand over membership roles of every single person involved with the company. Due to the potentially widespread nature of this precedent, it's very likely that this will get changed in some way by appeal, and the 2AF has vowed to not comply with this order anyway. Analyst: S2A1 Research:

S2 Underground GhostNotes

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//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z October 7, 2025// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: ISRAELI GOVERNMENT LAUNCHES CAMPAIGN TARGETING THE GPS POSITION OF AMERICAN CHRISTIANS DURING WORSHIP SERVICES. PRAVDA PUBLISHER DEAD AFTER FALL FROM APARTMENT WINDOW. GERMAN MAYOR WOUNDED IN STABBING ATTACK.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Germany: Overnight the Mayor of Herdecke, Iris Stalzer, remains in critical condition after being jumped and stabbed by a group of men. Analyst Comment: As is customary in Germany, very few details have been released on this case. However, locals observed Stalzer's own adopted son being taken from the scene in handcuffs and an evidence-preserving suit. Locals state that she was attacked and mugged by a group of migrants, and that when police arrived they discovered that her own adopted son was part of the gang that attacked her. Right now, this is purely rumor and only a single photo adds credence to the claims that her son was involved in some way. Time will tell what the truth is in this case, and in the absence of information there's not much to go on either way. Russia: Yesterday afternoon the publisher of Pravda died after falling from a window in Moscow. Vyacheslav Leontyev was discovered deceased after falling from his 5th-story apartment window, with local authorities stating that he jumped after experiencing a nervous breakdown. -HomeFront- USA: Controversy has mounted following the publishing of FARA documents pertaining to surveillance operations at Christian churches throughout the western United States. Last week, the official Israeli Ministry of Foreign Affairs partnered with (or created themselves, the ownership data is sketchy) an LLC in the United States by the name of "Show Faith By Works, LLC". As this company is directly controlled by a foreign government, it was required to register under the Foreign Agents Registration Act (FARA). In the 86 page registration form, the organizers self-describe this company as being formed to carry out the "largest Geofencing and targeted Christian Digital Campaign ever". This would be accomplished by geofencing most churches in the region and displaying targeted ads to Christians specifically with reference to the October 7th attacks while they are actively attending a church service (per the paperwork that was filed). -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: Everyone is strongly encouraged to read the documentation yourself, as linked below on the official US government website. Overall, what this means in the clearest possible terms, is that if you are a Christian who brings your cell phone to church in the western United States, the government of Israel is openly and publicly surveilling your phone and your exact GPS coordinates. If anyone did not surmise such before, this paperwork confirms beyond all doubt that this is occurring. As a reminder, this is not a private company...this is the actual Israeli government purchasing analytics data from American service providers. As such Christians who bring their phones into Church during worship times, will very likely receive targeted advertisements to encourage them to think a certain way about the October 7th attacks while in Church, as the paperwork specifically states that smartphones owned by Christians will be targeted during worship times. The documentation detailing this campaign also is not limited to Churches...the GPS tracking merely starts once a Christian enters into the geofenced area around a Church. If a Christian enters a church perimeter, but later leaves...the surveillance of their GPS position will continue. The geofencing barriers being placed around churches are merely to identify which smartphones belong to Christians. If a person's phone enters the church grounds on a certain time on Sunday morning, this device can be associated with Christianity, and once that association is made, targeted ads (and further surveillance) can be undertaken at a later time and place. Most analytics data that is available for purchase on the free market is anonymized...buyers can't tell what your phone number or name is. But based on the context of a person being physically located inside a church, this is good enough for Israeli governmental needs when it comes to this information campaign. It is this association that is important...the aggregation of the geographic context of one's position is concerning. Using these geofencing parameters, this campaign is not really about serving ads while a person is in church...it's a mass database of Christians. All of this is allegedly being done to push pro-Israel propaganda, as openly admitted by their own documentation. They even put together many powerpoint slides detailing the plans of the campaign, as well as a list of allegedly every single church that has been targeted for this operation. All things considered, the only reason we know about this effort is because the actual government of Israel created this company...if it were instead a shell company or an "American owned" entity, no one would know this surveillance is taking place and service providers would happily sell their customers' data to the highest bidder secretly. Foreign governments target American citizens for advertising purposes all the time, usually on topics like tourism. What makes this campaign worthy of mention is that it is attempting to be the largest in history, and it's targeting Americans purely and solely based on their faith. Furthermore, considering Israel's history with electronic devices, and the nature of this alleged ad campaign specifically to target Christians for their faith and church attendance, there are much wider concerns than a simple ad being displayed on one's social media timeline. The same foreign government that exploded devices in the pockets of their enemies is now openly and specifically targeting Christian smartphones...and the US government is fine with it as long as they fill out a form first. When American citizens have to think about putting their phone in a Faraday bag before they pull in to the church parking lot on Sunday, just so that a foreign government doesn't track them back to their home afterward...this is a problem. Openly paying clergymen money to specifically read a script spouting the talking points of a nationstate leaves very little uncertainty as to what the overall goals of this endeavor are. And while this situation is not new by any means, and may even be pencil-whipped into being legal over the years, pretending that this behavior is not abhorrent is also disingenuous. If this exact effort were to be carried out by any other nation, very serious consequences would result. But because of what has become obvious in American politics, there is almost zero chance that there will be any pushback on this at all, at least from federal agencies. On February 5, 2025, Attorney General Pam Bondi signed a memo to all DoJ employees, outlining her initiatives for the Department after being appointed to the position. This memo specifically referenced her initiative to change FARA reporting requirements for the first time in decades. This memo ordered the disbanding the NSA's Corporate Enforcement Unit, as well as the Foreign Influence Task Force. Granted, random government "task forces" aren't often effective at much, so this could have just been routine downsizing after a change of power in Washington. However, the overall strategic goal of the DoJ as outlined in this memo is clear: to downsize and deprioritize FARA policing efforts. More broadly, while this is a brazen effort by a foreign government, it would be very foolish to assume that this is the first time such action has been undertaken. These documents, while quite illuminating for some, are the least surprising "smoking gun" documents to come to light in recent memory. Even this campaign is not alone, there are two other wings of this operation. PROJECT ESTHER is a similar effort also being carried out by the Israeli Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and is the line of effort that specifically targets social media influencers to push pro-Israeli messaging. The other branch of this operation is the PROJECT 545 initiative (which is the more well-funded aspect of these efforts). This more generalized program is intended to launch a $145 million dollar propaganda campaign to target Americans in general with specific pro-Israeli messaging. Analyst: S2A1 Research:

S2 Underground GhostNotes

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//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z October 6, 2025// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: MAN ARRESTED WITH MOLOTOV OUTSIDE DC CATHEDRAL. AIRSPACE CONCERNS REMAIN THROUGHOUT EUROPE AS TENSIONS REMAIN HIGH.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Europe: Over the weekend, airspace closures were reported in Lithuania as suspected drones were detected. Vilnius Airport was shut down for several hours while the airspace incursion was investigated. After some time, what was initially reported as drones turned out to be a local custom that took the form of roughly 25x helium balloons smuggling cigarettes. Two of these balloons managed to fly over the airport, prompting the airspace closures. Analyst Comment: This is a fairly standard Saturday night in Lithuania. Almost 1,000 cigarette smuggling balloons were intercepted in Lithuania over the past year, with smugglers launching the balloons from Belarus where cigarettes are incredibly cheap. This practice is happening so often that the thousand balloons that are caught every year are the ones that get away; most balloons are successfully intercepted by smugglers (who have a GPS tracker on the balloons) once they land in Lithuania. -HomeFront- Washington D.C. - Yesterday morning a man was arrested during an incident at St. Matthew's Cathedral. Louis Geri was initially approached by police after setting up a camping tent on the front steps of the church before Mass. However, after a hostile interaction, a search revealed that he was in possession of a pre-made Molotov incendiary device, prompting his arrest. Geri was known to police and had previously been banned from the site for unknown reasons. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: This general area is known for vagrancy, however this individual lived in New Jersey. Right now it's not clear as to if the individual was attempting to conduct an attack at the church, or if he simply had explosives/incendiaries in his possession (as is becoming increasingly popular). Right now it looks like a crazy guy wanted to cause a scene at the Church, as pitching a tent right on the front steps is not normally an effective opening phase of a terror attack. Initially, there were concerns that the attacker was attempting to target churchgoers during Mass that Sunday morning. However, security practices were heightened due to the church celebrating Red Mass yesterday, a special Mass dedicated to pray for the Supreme Court Justices. This Mass is held at this Church once per year, usually on the Sunday before the court calendar begins. There aren't usually any Justices in attendance (for obvious reasons), but one or two have attended in the past. As such, this specific church usually has an increased security posture on this day, just in case an attacker mistakenly thinks that a Supreme Court Justice might turn up. If he did not know about the Red Mass specifically (as it's not something that's particularly widely known outside the Church), he was still up to no good by bringing explosives to the front steps of a church. As expected, no word yet on if any federal terrorism charges will be brought, however FBI investigators were observed taking photos of the scene. Analyst: S2A1 Research:

S2 Underground GhostNotes

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//END REPORT//

This week's intel update is out 👍

//The Wire//2300Z October 3, 2025// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: MORE DETAILS COME TO LIGHT REGARDING MANCHESTER ATTACKER. UNITED STATES STRIKES FOURTH NARCO VESSEL IN CARIBBEAN SEA.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- United Kingdom: More details have come to light regarding yesterday's terror attack in Manchester. The suspect was immediately identified as Jihad al-Shamie, an immigrant from Syria who was given British citizenship when he was a child. Concerning the casualties from the attack, authorities have stated that one of the two fatal casualties was due to friendly fire; one person was accidentally shot and killed by police during the response. Another individual was shot and wounded by police during the fray as well, which results in the casualty count being as follows: - 1x individual murdered by the terrorist - 2x individuals wounded by the terrorist - 1x individual killed by police - 1x individual wounded by police - 1x terrorist killed by police All of the civilian wounded/killed during the attack were located near the front door of the synagogue, in the process of barricading the structure to prevent access by the attacker. Caribbean: This morning the United States carried out another kinetic targeting of a suspected narcovessel, bringing the total to 4x fastboat sunk so far during this continuing operation. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: This afternoon various developments have been made regarding a peace deal in the Middle East. President Trump made the announcement that Hamas and Israel have agreed to the peace plan as organized so far, though right now it is still up in the air as to if this is actually going to go ahead as there are still many opportunities for this plan to be derailed before coming into fruition. Time will tell, and more developments on this front are expected over the next few days. Analyst: S2A1 Research:

S2 Underground GhostNotes

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//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z October 2, 2025// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: TERROR ATTACK STRIKES MANCHESTER. FAKE ACTIVE SHOOTER CALLED IN AT NEW JERSEY MILITARY BASE. BOMB THREAT DISRUPTS SERVICES AT MIAMI CHURCH.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- United Kingdom: This morning a complex terror attack was carried out in Manchester. One assailant began the initial phase of the attack by ramming his vehicle into the perimeter fence at the Heaton Park Hebrew Congregation Synagogue. Once the vehicle came to a halt, the attacker exited the vehicle and attempted to gain entry to the facility. Police were immediately on scene, and as the crowd scattered, police were able to corner the assailant. The attacker attempted to detonate a suicide belt that he was wearing, but the S-Belt did not explode (the belt was determined later to be either fake or not a viable explosive). A few moments later, the suspect was shot by armed police, ending the attack. Concerning casualties, 2x people were killed and 3x others wounded during the attack. Analyst Comment: The attacker (who has not yet been identified) was probably targeting Yom Kippur events (which is today). Some time after the incident, two other individuals were reportedly arrested in conjunction with this incident a short distance from the initial attack site. However the status of these individuals is unknown, along with how these arrests are related to the initial attack. -HomeFront- New Jersey: Yesterday afternoon a fake active shooter incident was called in at JB McGuire-Dix-Lakehurst. Local authorities arrested Malika Brittingham (a civilian employee working for the US Navy) for calling in the fake active shooting, which resulted in the base locking down and local schools enacting active shooter protocols. Authorities state that Brittingham called in the active shooter because she was feeling ostracized by her coworkers, and that faking the active shooting would allow her to "trauma bond" with her fellow employees. Washington D.C. - Politics continues as the government remains shut down. This morning, several media outlets claimed to have access to a leaked letter that was sent from the White House to Congress. The letter allegedly contains a notice to Congress that the United States is now involved in a "noninternational armed conflict" regarding central/south American drug cartels. Analyst Comment: If this letter is being accurately described by journalists (which is a big "if"), this is quite the eyebrow-raising declaration. Since the letter itself is being withheld by media groups, there's no way to independently verify the information or if the context is being described accurately. Either way, the phrase "noninternational armed conflict" is an interesting choice of words as it sounds a lot like a war declaration without a war declaration. Until some level of clarification is obtained, it's all conjecture. However, the absolute lowest-hanging fruit of an assessment is that the conflict down south will not be ending or de-escalating anytime soon. Florida: Monday afternoon a man was arrested after making a bomb threat during the Liturgy at St. Andrew Greek Orthodox Church in Miami. This incident occurred on Sunday, however it's just now gaining wider attention due to the details of the case. Local authorities state that a man was clutching a backpack and was acting suspiciously during services on Sunday, which prompted a Deacon to approach the man. Upon making contact, the man handed the backpack to the Deacon, and stated that it was a bomb. The Deacon took the backpack, which was making a ticking noise, and placed off to the side of the nave. The church was not evacuated, and services continued as before. After a few minutes, a loud, piercing alarm was emitted from the suspect (which later was revealed to be the suspect's phone), along with an audible countdown to detonation. After a few more minutes, the man who brought the bomb suddenly ran to where the backpack was being stored, and placed his phone inside the bag. Services were allowed to finish, and at the end the would-be bomber (who remained unsubdued inside the church throughout the incident), stood up and shouted Allahu Akbar before departing. The man was arrested the following day, and was subsequently identified as Isaac Lopez, a Cuban national. After some time the bomb squad cleared the device as being fake, and the suspect was booked only on misdemeanor charges, and held under a $7,650 bond. No word yet on if any federal terrorism charges will be filed. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: If this incident had been real, this would have been a mass casualty event and MANY lives would likely have been lost. While hindsight is 20/20, theses types of incidents have already become far too common for anyone to take these threats lightly. As a reminder, a very similar situation occurred at St. Michael's Abbey in California less than a month ago, in which a mentally ill man with a vehicle full of weapons entered the Church and told the Priest that he was there to conduct a mass shooting. In the interest of time, we cannot wait months to examine every minute detail of this case; this is not to judge or nitpick the actions of the day callously, but to rapidly understand this event so that lives could be saved, if next time the bomb is real. Speculating a bit regarding this specific case, it is possible that Church leadership thought they were dealing with a potential mental illness situation, and that making a fuss would make the situation worse. This is becoming very common during church services all around the US, so this is understandable. However, all bets are off when someone says "I have a bomb", and their backpack is ticking. At that point we transition into the realm of counterterrorism, which many Church staff members are simply not experienced in managing (understandably so). In that respect, a basic understanding of what to do during a bomb threat is crucial. The Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Administration has produced both a Bomb Threat Guide and a Bomb Threat Checklist for those to use who do not have a counterterrorism background. These guides may be of use for Churches who do not have experience with such threats, and are linked below. But again, in the interest of time a quick and dirty explanation of what to do is as follows: 1. If a bomb is discovered DO NOT touch or move it. 2. Calmly but immediately vacate the premises. 3. Isolate the suspected explosive device (i.e. prevent others from going near it). 4. If the terrorist is on site and is an active and unchallenged threat, those who are so able must do what is necessary to save life and limb. 5. Once clear of the structure, call 911 as soon as possible to report the incident. Regarding the potential attacker, whatever means necessary should be undertaken to prevent the terrorist from re-gaining access to the bomb; allowing a terrorist to tinker with a potential explosive device in a packed Church is the least desirable possibility, and should be avoided at all costs. Considering that rapid, unplanned evacuations are not something that Churches may be familiar with, it will be up to the Deacons or the Priest to organize an efficient and calm evacuation outside. A good rule of thumb is that the blast zone for an IED is always bigger than you think it will be, and flying debris will be a threat for a considerable distance. As such, do not simply mill about immediately outside the front doors, but transition to a safe zone some distance away from the structure if able. If a scenario arises where a Church official is handed a potential explosive device, place the device on the ground as gently as possible and rapidly vacate the area. Homemade explosives are usually unstable and likely to go off with the slightest provocation, so moving the device at all is ill advised while the Church is being evacuated. Parishioners should refrain from using their cell phones until clear of the blast zone, as if the bomb has a radio-based trigger the use of cell phones might prematurely detonate the device. For any churches that have on-site security that use radios, the use of radio comms is also not recommended for the same reasons. Specifically with regards to the special considerations presented to religious institutions, and also understanding that services are a Holy time for worship, if there ever were a more pressing moment to interrupt a Priest during services, it would be when there is a clear and present bomb threat actively unfolding inside the Church. This would warrant the Priest delicately but firmly being made aware of the situation so that the facility can be evacuated promptly. Analyst: S2A1 Research:

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//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z October 1, 2025// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: ROSE DOCHERTY ARRESTED AGAIN IN SCOTLAND AS SOCIAL DISSENT CONTINUES TO RISE. IED THREAT DISCOVERED NEAR MUNICH, DELAYING SOME OKTOBERFEST EVENTS.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- United Kingdom: Social concerns and dissent continue as before. On Monday, Rose Docherty was arrested once again in Scotland for holding a sign in the general vicinity of an abortion facility which read "Coercion is a crime, here to talk, only if you want". Analyst Comment: This is the second time she was arrested under similar circumstances, with a nearly identical incident occurring back in February. Regarding that initial incident, the charges were eventually dropped in August. However, that did not stop police from arresting her under the same conditions anyway once again. For wider context, in Scotland specifically "Buffer Zone" laws have been a concern for some time since they don't just apply to protest actions in public...but also in private homes, as noted by American Vice President JD Vance (which brought a lot of international attention to the issue back in February, after her first arrest). More generally around the Kingdom, dissent is growing. A petition to scrub the Digital ID plans has reached over 2.7 million signatures so far, which is a not an inconsequential number regarding these types of government petitions. Nevertheless, the petition has so far been ignored, and the number of signatures continues to climb. Considering the very serious speech issues across the pond, whenever these incidents come to light it is often only American sources who can bring more eyes to these dystopian issues, since even talking about these topics in public forum is often an arrestable offense in the U.K. now. As such, while these incidents do not get that much attention here in the US, these are always worthy to note as the general situation continues to deteriorate as similar efforts pop up here at home. Germany: This morning Oktoberfest celebrations were briefly delayed following an explosive threat in Munich. A fire broke out at a residential building, which resulted in loud bangs being heard by locals as various unknown items cooked off inside the burning structure. Upon responding to the incident local authorities indicated that this may not have been a standard house fire, but rather linked to some sort of explosive threat. One person was reported deceased in conjunction with this investigation, but details vary regarding this person's status. Authorities have also stated that one person linked to this case has been reported missing, however that person's remains may have been located inside the structure. Authorities also stated that the incident stemmed from a domestic dispute that involved the paternity of the deceased suspect's daughter. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: The media coverage of the Oktoberfest "explosive threat" has been confusing at best, but the discovery of multiple explosive devices strongly indicates that this incident is not a simple domestic. Just to be blunt, we don't know if the suspect was a German man, or a "German man", so until that detail is known this whole situation could either be a very rare and obscure (but still horrific) case that is purely a case study, or it could be a continuation of the new normal regarding terrorism threats around Europe. German authorities in typical fashion are not making it easy to determine what happened here, so some speculation is needed to piece together the basic facts of the case and to determine if any threat *still remains* regarding the final days of Oktoberfest. But rounding up all of the evidence released to the public, a general sequence of events can be organized: A 57-year-old "German" man engaged in a family dispute at a home in Lerchenau this morning. That dispute resulted in the home being set on fire, and upon the fire services arriving on scene, explosive devices were found inside the residence along with the remains of a 90-year-old man that is assessed to be the suspect's father. Separately, a 57-year-old man was identified as the arsonist, before fleeing the scene with police in pursuit. An 81-year-old woman (the suspect's mother) and a 21-year-old woman (the suspect's daughter) were also injured as a result of the fire. Some time later, the suspect was discovered deceased at some location near a lake adjacent to the original house fire location. The man appears to have taken his own life, and had a backpack with him that also had improvised explosive devices inside. At some point during the investigation, authorities discovered a note written by the deceased suspected bomb maker, which referenced Oktoberfest (thus the link to the event). No further details have been released, but authorities have allowed festivities to continue as if there is no future threat. Analyst: S2A1 Research:

S2 Underground GhostNotes

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//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z September 30, 2025// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: PENTAGON LAUNCHES COLOSSAL INITIATIVE TO COMBAT FAT GENERALS. PUTIN CALLS UP 135K CONSCRIPTS FOR WINTER FIGHTING SEASON.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Russia: Yesterday President Putin issued the semi-regular call up for military conscription for this winter, which has topped 135,000 troops this season. This is the largest callup in recent memory, with most sources claiming that it's the largest draft since 2016. -HomeFront- Washington D.C. - Yesterday morning a parked US Secret Service vehicle caught fire at the corner of 18th Street and Pennsylvania Avenue Northwest. The cause of the fire was stated to be an electrical problem, and no one was injured during the incident. In Congress, a government shutdown looms as lawmakers remain in a budgetary deadlock. The White House stated that a government shutdown is likely, and all parties do not seem to be interested in the last-minute deals that normally take place during shutdowns. Analyst Comment: Of note, headlines this morning have circulated regarding "100,000 federal employees resigning en masse", usually with fantastical subheadings to imply that these 100k employees walked off the job this morning. This is not true. These "resignations" are actually the result of the DOGE initiative called the Deferred Resignation Program (DRP) from a few months ago. This program offered government employees a buyout of their employment so as to downsize many agencies by removing positions altogether. Around 100,000 government employees took this buyout, and thus the misleading headlines referencing 100,000 resignations this morning. Nearly all of these positions were already defunct weeks ago, this is merely a formalization of downsizing efforts by officially removing these positions from the payrolls of various agencies. Virginia - This morning the much-anticipated consortium of Flag Officers began at Marine Corps Base Quantico with a different kind of downsizing. SECWAR Pete Hegseth had originally called the secretive meeting a couple of weeks ago, summoning hundreds of general officers to discuss unknown topics. A few days ago it was announced that President Trump himself would also be attending the meeting. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: Due to the initially secret purpose of this meeting, speculation abounded regarding why this many general officers would be called to an in person meeting without the topic of discussion being conveyed ahead of time. This led most to speculate that the topic of discussion would be the rampant insubordination from within the gargantuan Flag Officer corps, which has been a mammoth problem since President Trump took office. As the enormous meeting of generals got underway this morning, the true topic of the day was revealed to be more corpulent in nature: no more fat generals. All service members regardless of rank or girth will now be required to pass a PT test twice per year...no more waivers (allegedly). Other sizable details mentioned during the hefty address are the return to a more lean and warrior-focused military culture devoid of transgender ideology, climate change considerations, or other recent additions to the Pentagon's means of operating. All in all, while the massive firings that were hoped for did not take place, calling generals fat to their faces and livestreaming it to the internet is a worthy consolation that will certainly improve morale among junior service members. Granted, getting 4-Star Generals to actually take a PT test (instead of having their staff pencil whip the paperwork as usual), is a colossal undertaking that if achieved, will be no small feat. Analyst: S2A1 Research:

S2 Underground GhostNotes

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//The Wire//2300Z September 29, 2025// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: TARGETED MASS SHOOTINGS STRIKE MICHIGAN, NORTH CAROLINA, AND TEXAS. DRONE REPORTS CONTINUE IN DENMARK.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Denmark: Various drone incursions continue as before. Over the weekend Denmark ordered the grounding of all civilian drones throughout their nation in an attempt to isolate the incursions that continue to take place at airports and sensitive military sites. Analyst Comment: This morning Denmark unexpectedly called up an unknown number of reservists into active military service. France and Sweden have also begun the process of sending counter-UAS systems to Denmark to help secure the upcoming EU summit in Copenhagen on Wednesday. It's not supposed to be a major summit (comparatively speaking), but security is still a concern due to the general tensions throughout Europe remaining high. -HomeFront- Illinois: Civil unrest regarding immigration detention facilities continued over the weekend, with several arrests being made at riots outside the facility in Broadview. DHS sources state that 11x people were arrested overnight at this facility, at least one of which was arrested with an improvised explosive device of some kind in his backpack. Texas: Sunday night a mass shooting was reported at the Lucky Eagle Casino in Eagle Pass. Local authorities identified the shooter as Keryan Rashad Jones, who was apprehended after a short vehicle pursuit. 2x people were killed and 5x others wounded during the attack. Analyst Comment: The circumstances leading up to this attack are not clear; the only details that have been released are those of the casualty figures and the name of the shooter. Considering the context of the location itself being a Casino, it's likely that the motive for the shooting is related to that, however it's still not clear as to if this was an impulsive shooting or something more planned. More details are expected as court docs get released later this week. North Carolina: A mass shooting was reported at the American Fish Company in Southport. Local authorities state that Nigel Edge was operating a small boat in the waters off of the waterfront when he began firing at the shoreline in the general direction of the American Fish Company and The Frying Pan Restaurant which was immediately adjacent to the fish company, which was hosting the usual live music and entertainment typical for most establishments in the area. 3x people were killed and several others were wounded in the attack. Edge was able to egress from the area down the Intracoastal Waterway, before he was apprehended while loading his boat at a nearby boat launch. Michigan: Sunday morning a mass shooting was conducted at the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints in Grand Blanc. One gunman conducted a complex attack at the Church at approximately 10:30 am, targeting those arriving for services that morning. The assailant began the attack by ramming his vehicle into the Church, before exiting and conducting the shooting phase of the attack. At some point during the engagement, the attacker is suspected to have deliberately set the Church on fire before he was engaged and the attack halted. After the attack, multiple IEDs were discovered in the the assailant's vehicle, which either failed to detonate or were not used during the attack. Concerning casualties, 4x parishioners were killed, and 8x more were wounded, the conditions of which are not yet known. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: The suspected shooter in the Michigan attack has been identified as Thomas Jacob Sanford, who was killed during the attack. Right now reports conflict on who ended the threat; some reports state that law enforcement engaged the shooter, whereas other reports have stated that it was a parishioner who was concealed carrying a firearm in violation of Church policy. Either way the shooter was killed and the attack stopped. From a very wavetop level, the randomness (yet the deliberation taken to plan these attacks) is the most useful bit of information to glean from both incidents. Both the Michigan and North Carolina attackers planned their respective attacks for some time, selecting soft-targets that they knew would not be protected or offer much resistance. Both attackers also used vehicles for rapid ingress to the attack site. The Southport shooter clearly planned to egress from the attack site after the attack, and thus conducted the shooting from some distance (as the attacker valued his own survival). Conversely, the Michigan shooter closed with his selected targets and engaged from close range, as he very clearly did not intend to survive the encounter. As more of these attacks continue, these are the details most immediately useful to consider in hardening defenses for the more vulnerable targets in society. Analyst: S2A1 Research:

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This week's intel update is out 👍

//The Wire//2300Z September 26, 2025// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: MISSING PERSON CASE IN FLORIDA HIGHLIGHTS MEDIA MANIPULATION CONCERNS DURING ACTIVE AMBER ALERTS. COUNTER ICE RIOTS INTENSIFY IN CHICAGO. CRACKDOWN ON SPEECH CONTINUES IN UNITED KINGDOM.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- United Kingdom: The censorship and speech targeting concerns continue to deteriorate as another wave of arrests has emerged among right-wing political commentators. Steve Laws and Pete North have been arrested over the past few days, as PM Starmer continues to state that the U.K. has freedom of speech. Nonetheless, the arrests continue, not just among more visible influencers, but among laypeople as well. Analyst Comment: Hundreds of arrests have been reported all around the U.K. for social media posts, with most of these arrests only coming to light from family members who notice the arrests. This is due to gag orders being placed on the detainees, so that they can't even talk about why they were arrested, or else they will get slapped with higher charges. This is to ensure that the speech crime arrests go largely unnoticed, since public outcry would result if high profile arrests are made. Since the courts are now routinely placing gag orders on people who are being arrested on speech-crime charges, the sheer scale of how many arrests are being made is impossible to know. -HomeFront- Illinois: The situation in Chicago continues to deteriorate as more counter-ICE riots escalate. Various blockade-type actions remain the main vector for rioters to hinder ICE actions, such as at the detention facility in Broadview. Iowa: This afternoon a high-profile ICE raid was carried out, targeting Dr. Ian Andre Roberts. Roberts was the superintendent of the Des Moines Public School System, but he was also a fugitive and illegal immigrant from Guyana who had an active deportation order since May of 2024. After his case was reopened, ICE agents made contact with him today, after which he fled on foot before a K9 unit apprehended him. He was arrested in possession of a firearm, a large knife, and several thousand dollars. Florida: Yesterday evening a high-profile Amber Alert was issued for a hostile abduction of a 17-year-old in Marion County. Caden Speight has been found, but was initially reported missing after what was initially described as a very kinetic kidnapping. The victim's family received a text message that indicated he had been shot and kidnapped by 4x Hispanic males in a light colored van. Local authorities located his abandoned vehicle on Hwy 484 (which had at least one bullet hole in it, according to the initial story), and Speight's phone was also recovered at the scene broken in half. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: Something is not quite right with this case, and despite the obvious media hooks to sensationalize this story, nobody really knew what was going on as the details of the search continued to change throughout the day. This morning, investigators stated that the initial details of the incident were determined to be false, and that the current evidence available does not support the abduction story. Investigators stated that he appears to have departed from the initial incident site on a bicycle, possibly with a red and grey tent that was purchased using his credit/debit card at a Walmart in Ocala shortly before the incident. At the time it appeared as though this may have been a runaway situation portrayed as a violent kidnapping. However, as the situation continued to develop, notices from officials changed from an Amber Alert to caution, urging citizens to not make contact with Speight if he was discovered. Shortly after this change in tone, Speight was reported to be found, with a gunshot wound to his leg. However some reports suggest the opposite, and that he was found without any wounds (as indicated during the live press conference with the Sheriff's Office). From an investigative perspective, this is not entirely a novel case. Often times individuals make compounding decisions that don't necessarily make sense to us, but to the individual themselves their actions do make sense. Whether this was a very elaborate hoax that involved a self-inflicted gunshot wound, or of this was something else remains uncertain. The only details that have been confirmed beyond reasonable doubt is that the abduction story was not true and that Speight is no longer missing. All the other details in this case are up in the air, and will take some time to clarify. Of note regarding this case, as interesting as a potential hoax case is, one aspect of the story remains absolutely critical to investigate further, as it has wide-ranging implications beyond this incident itself. Initially the Amber Alert was sent out that described Speight as wearing a red MAGA hat, and that he was possibly abducted by 4x Hispanic males. As these details are highly sensational news, this received a lot of media attention. However, these details were false....right now it looks like someone forged the original Amber Alert notice mere minutes after it was released to include the detail about the MAGA hat. No record can be found that the Marion County Sheriff's Office ever issued this notice; all of the notices that can be traced back to official government accounts make no mention of the MAGA hat. Speculating to some degree, either one of two situations is likely: Either the Sheriff's Office issued the Alert including the detail of the MAGA hat, but corrected that report later on OR this was the work of malign actors that, as a missing person case was ongoing, immediately issued forged Amber Alert notices, altering the details of a missing person so as to sensationalize the news story. Considering the implication of the latter, this needs to be investigated more thoroughly; not enough detail exists at the moment to know for sure what happened. If the Sheriff's Office was mistaken in their description (but later corrected their mistake), fair enough, these things happen during the fog of war as part of immediate and time-sensitive rescue operations. However, if authorities NEVER mentioned the MAGA hat detail, and that part was forged by media from the very start, we may have bigger problems at hand. The origin of this "MAGA hat" detail is important, but even so nearly every media outlet repeated this detail exclusively, even though right now it's nearly impossible to find the origin of this initial claim. Only one screenshot of this allegedly "initial" Amber Alert notice exists, so if this was a genuine error that was corrected, it was corrected immediately and most journalists somehow managed to not update their stories. Erring on the side of caution, this is a very strong and serious reminder to ALWAYS receive missing person reports from official government accounts, not reposts or screenshots. Missing person reports and many other types of potentially criminal situations are squarely in the realm of what tax dollars pay for; nobody wants to trust government sources for anything these days (which is fair enough), but in doing so many people forget that no "independent journalist" answers the phone when someone calls 911. Missing person cases are squarely in the realm of having to go by what authorities publish, and if those details change, it's best to get those details right from the primary source...because the secondary sources might be altering details of the case. Analyst: S2A1 Research:

S2 Underground GhostNotes

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Hello everyone, welcome to GhostNotes, a project to convert a lot of the S2 Underground

//END REPORT//