//The Wire//2300Z July 1, 2025// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: CARTEL VIOLENCE CONTINUES IN MEXICO. USDA ANNOUNCES OPENING OF CATTLE IMPORTS DESPITE PARASITE OUTBREAK.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Mexico: Cartel violence continues as before, amid a recent wave of murders that have taken place around the country over the past few weeks. Last night, several human remains were discovered hanging from a bridge in Culiacán, with a total of 20x remains discovered throughout the site. Europe: Tensions between Germany and Poland have been on the rise, as recent changes in German immigration policy have caused problems for Poland. Various protests have occurred along the border in Poland, as citizens have voiced concern with Germany deporting illegal immigrants from their country, into Poland. Analyst Comment: This practice has been ongoing for some time, and many legal battles are in progress pertaining to immigration issues that have caused problems among European nations. Nevertheless, dissent is growing among the citizenry with regards to how governments are handling immigration issues. -HomeFront- Texas: Yesterday afternoon the US Department of Agriculture announced that the import of foreign livestock from Mexico will recommence on July 7th. The import of all livestock had previously been halted in May due to an outbreak of New World Screwworm (NWS) in Mexico, a flesh-eating parasite which is infamous for devastating entire herds of cattle, deer, and bison. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: The decision to begin re-opening imports of foreign livestock has been received with raised eyebrows for two main reasons: For one, screwworm is very serious and the wisdom of re-opening imports while the outbreak is ongoing is questionable. And secondly the press statement by the USDA essentially boiled down to the USDA trusting Mexico to increase parasite surveillance operations. Trust is hard to come by these days, and this move to re-open imports is at odds with the concerns raised by the state of Texas concerning this disease. Texas agricultural agencies, research groups, and health officials, recognizing the risks posed by NWS have begun more intense efforts to combat the disease. Governor Abbott signed a letter last week ordering the creation of various Task Forces to coordinate and share resources to combat the cross-border transmission of the parasite. The press statement also indicates that the USDA is more or less taking the position of opening up cattle imports, and hoping it doesn't spread. The USDA has been increasing operations to release sterile NWS flies throughout Texas and Mexico, however the timing of this is suspect considering that it was the Mexican Minister of Agriculture that requested the acceleration of timelines concerning the re-importing of Mexican cattle. Since roughly 20% of the beef consumed in the United States originates from Mexico, the decision to allow imports during an outbreak is probably based more on economics than medicine. Time will tell if this is a good decision or not. On the one hand halting beef imports for too much longer will probably cause a rise in prices at the supermarket, but on the other hand NWS was only eradicated in the US during the 1960's after long and arduous efforts, so if this gets out of hand again this has the potential to become very serious once more. Analyst: S2A1 Research:

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//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z June 30, 2025// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: FIREFIGHTERS TARGETED IN IDAHO AMBUSH, MULTIPLE FATALITIES REPORTED. TARGETING CONTINUES IN THE MIDDLE EAST.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Middle East: The situation remains tenuous throughout the region as another drone attack strikes Tehran. This afternoon, locals reported witnessing a kamikaze drone attack taking place in Tehran, which is being claimed to have targeted a senior IRGC official. Analyst Comment: As this is a developing situation, very few details are confirmed. However, yesterday anti-aircraft batteries throughout the city were observed engaging targets, which would add more validity to the claims of small drones being used to target senior defense officials. Reports from last night also suggest that Iranian leadership is continuing to crack down on spies and insurgents carrying out attacks within Tehran, which is continuing to be a problem despite the ceasefire. -HomeFront- Idaho: Yesterday afternoon a small arms engagement was reported on Canfield Mountain just east of Cour d'Alene. At approximately 1330L, firefighters responded to a call of a brush fire on Canfield Mountain, in the vicinity of Nettleton Gulch Road. Upon arrival on scene, firefighters unknowingly maneuvered into the kill zone of a deliberately laid ambush, with the fire being started to lure authorities in to the location. In the initial ambush, 2x firefighters were KIA, and several others were wounded. After some time, local authorities stated that the body of a male individual (presumed to be the shooter) was recovered from the scene, along with a firearm. This morning, the shooter was identified as Wess Roley. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: Regarding the verbiage used to describe the situation in Idaho, additional context would be helpful to discern the threat. The term "ambush" is technically correct in describing the shooting, however this term is also likely to imply that a classic L-shaped ambush was laid by a professional military force. In this case, this is not what happened at all. The shooter briefly spoke to firefighters who were arriving on scene, before climbing a tree and engaging them with a shotgun from close range. Considering that many people around the nation are currently concerned with various threats of terrorism, it is important to understand that while horrific, this incident does not bear the hallmarks of a more professional and sophisticated terror attack. Incidents like this often highlight additional concerns that would be wise to consider. For instance, even before the shooter's identity was even known, many "journalists" were pushing a narrative for political purposes even as the incident was ongoing. Even now, a full day after the attack (and knowing the shooter's identity), many news organizations have not issued corrections to their articles that attempted to paint this situation as some sort of crazed militia activity related to White Supremacy groups (or the general idea of such). This horrific attack was the result of one individual who's success relied not upon military planning tactics, but on the fire department (understandably) not expecting to roll up to a fire and find someone shooting at them from a tree. However, regardless of the rhetoric that is already being spread, it is extremely crucial to remember that in the heat of the moment, the underlying politics and ideology are less important than the situation at hand; political discussions are best served after the situation is resolved, not while bullets are still whizzing by overhead. It is also easy to forget that, regardless of the suspicious nature of attacks like this, at the end of the day real people are dead. This will be important to remember as multiple sides will seek to spin this event to suit their narratives. Analyst: S2A1 Research:

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//END REPORT//

This week's intel update is out!

//The Wire//2300Z June 27, 2025// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: SCOTUS SIDES WITH TRUMP ON LOWER COURTS ISSUING BLANKET RULINGS. PROTESTS IN EUROPE CONTINUE.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Europe: Various demonstrations and protests continue as usual. In Poland, demonstrations were conducted today regarding the migrant crisis, with Poles expressing dissatisfaction with the deportation of migrants to their country. Yesterday a small protest was reported in Ljubljana, Slovenia, following the NATO summit this week. This summit largely did not discuss much of any importance, with the exception of again urging member states to pledge 5% of their defense budget to NATO's collective defense. AC: Demonstrations in eastern European nations often end up being a good barometer for gauging how the east/west dynamic is developing. This time, Slovenians protested against NATO and the United States for a variety of reasons, but mostly due to the recent activities in the Middle East. Middle East: Tensions in Gaza have increased following a report from Israeli media claiming that IDF soldiers were ordered to target civilians seeking food aid. In the report, interviewed IDF soldiers explained the long-standing practices regarding the targeting of civilians, such as the practice of shooting civilians "who appeared to pose no threat". AC: The Israeli Military Advocate General has also ordered an internal investigation into these targeting efforts, and several nations have issued statements of condemnation regarding this practice. These reports come after months of complaints from international aid groups being kinetically targeted throughout the region. -HomeFront- Washington D.C. - This morning the US Supreme Court issued a few rulings of note. SCOTUS ruled in favor of President Trump concerning his lawsuit to prevent activist judges from exceeding their jurisdictions to issue rulings more broad than the initial scope of the initial lawsuit. In effect, this means that President Trump's executive order to ban birthright citizenship for illegals and for those on temporary visas is in effect. Similarly, this morning the White House announced that they will be terminating the Temporary Protected Status (TPS) of roughly 500,000 Haitian nationals, continuing the efforts from a few months ago to halt/slow immigration from Haiti under humanitarian programs. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: The SCOTUS did not address the merits of Trump's birthright citizenship Executive Order itself; this judgement only re-affirmed the long-standing policy of preventing judges from issuing judgements outside their jurisdiction. However, the follow-on effects of this judgement will be interesting to follow as this affects a few hot-button issues that is currently at the heart of American discourse (most notably immigration-related issues). Analyst: S2A1 Research:

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//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z June 26, 2025// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: MORE ARRESTS MADE FOLLOWING WEEKEND NEEDLE ATTACKS IN FRANCE. DEBATE CONTINUES REGARDING SUCCESS OF BOMBING RAID AT FORDOW.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- France: More arrests have been made in conjunction with last weekend's mass needle-attacks at a nationwide series of music festivals around the nation. Over the past few days, a total of 12x suspects have been arrested after over 145x people were stabbed with syringes filled with various harmful substances at various events around the country. Most of the victims are women, who were intentionally targeted as posts on social media urged the syringe attacks before the events got underway. 13x police officers were also stabbed with needles during the festivities. AC: Though the sheer scale of mass needle attacks is very concerning, this has happened many times before throughout France. In 2022, over 300x people were wounded in similar attacks. However, in traditional fashion, the names of the suspects who have been arrested have been withheld from the public. Middle East: This afternoon a drone attack was carried out in Tehran, targeting a residential apartment building. AC: So far details are sketchy at best, but there's been no response from any interested party, even though this is probably another ceasefire violation. -HomeFront- Washington D.C. - Much debate abounds concerning the recent strikes on Iranian nuclear sites. President Trump has condemned the initial intelligence leak that indicated that the strikes were not successful, and has blamed the leak on Democratic representatives in Congress (though few details have clarified this claim). Currently, all parties involved (to include every governmental resource and the mainstream media) all concur that the Iranian nuclear weapons program was set back considerably by the strikes, and that the American bombing operation was an overwhelming success. However, all sides have also stated that Iran possesses several hundred pounds of highly-enriched Uranium, which allegedly remains unaccounted for. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: A more forensic Battle Damage Assessment (BDA) of the strikes at Fordow will need to be conducted, but it's going to be almost impossible to confirm with any certainty whether or not America's finest bunker-buster munitions would pierce deep enough to catastrophically destroy the vast array of underground enrichment and processing facilities. The Iranians will seek to downplay losses (so they won't exactly be publishing photos of damage) and the Israelis/Americans will want to over-state the impact this targeting effort had. The truth will be challenging to discern via independent sources as everyone involved seeks to lie in one way or the other. Nevertheless, the world will work with the information that is available, and micro-analyze every rock and pebble out of place at these facilities over the next few months, all with the goal of determining whether or not mission success was achieved. Speaking purely from a historical perspective, the debate of "can a GBU-57 actually pierce Fordow?" has been ongoing for decades. Of course, there are very few indicators that would actually provide proof of any internal damage to the facility (there will be no crater to speak of for an explosion that takes place hundreds of feet under a mountain). The only entities that for-sure, 100% know the damage that was caused by the strikes are the Americans/Israeli's (via spies) and the Iranians themselves. In short, the Iranians know how deep to dig their tunnels now, one way or the other. In a larger sense, these details are important as exceptionally grave errors often result in a conflict where one belligerent makes the assessment that a certain target was destroyed, when in fact...it was not. In any case, from the outside looking in the American people don't have any solid way of knowing for sure if Iran's capability to create a nuclear weapon has been degraded. And if the Iranians were not sprinting to create a nuclear weapon before these strikes, they certainly are now. In the atomic age, it is not battleships nor aircraft carriers that were sought to be destroyed in a sneak-attack over the weekend...it is the capability to rapidly assemble a nuclear weapon. Anything short of the catastrophic and total destruction of these facilities guarantees that a proper attempt at achieving the status of a nuclear state will be undertaken. Analyst: S2A1 Research:

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//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z June 25, 2025// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: NATO SUMMIT CONCLUDES AT THE HAGUE, NOTHING MAJOR OF NOTE. RECENTLY-RELEASED DETAILS OF A MURDER CASE HIGHLIGHT GROWING TERRORISM CONCERNS.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Europe: This afternoon the NATO summit concluded largely without incident. This year the focus was largely centered around President Trump's return to the White House, and the subsequent changing of American priorities throughout NATO. AC: For the most part, nothing surprising was discussed. Commitments to NATO in terms of Article 5, increased defense spending, and general discussion of the war in Ukraine were all points of discussion as usual, but for the most part this was a fairly unassuming summit. -HomeFront- Arizona: Yesterday afternoon Adam Sheafe confessed to the murder of Bill Schonemann, a local pastor. Sheafe had previously been arrested for the murder, and conducted the interview from jail. AC: This murder occurred back in April, however the recent interview given from jail has revealed the exceptionally graphic details of the murder. At the time, the details of this murder were not publicized, nor was Sheafe's plan to murder 13 other religious leaders around the nation. At the time of his arrest, he was in the final stages of planning the murder of two other pastors in the Phoenix area. This was not a random targeting effort; this was a deliberate attempt to target specific religious leaders who may not have known that they were being targeted specifically. Also of note, the family of Bill Schonemann released a statement yesterday, expressing concern that the killer was able to have unsupervised internet access to conduct an interview while being incarcerated. The family's statement also mentioned that this individual not only is not remorseful, but also very dedicated to continuing the mass murder of Christian clergymen. Considering that media groups have allowed him to spread his ideology, this is an important concern to note as the threat of copycats remains pertinent. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: So far, the ceasefire in the Middle East is holding. However, this ceasefire is tenuous at best, as all sides seek to capitalize in the cessation of hostilities to continue machinations. Iran's Defense Minister Aziz Nasirzadeh arrived in China this morning, signaling both an attempt to improve relations with China, but possibly also signaling fractures in Iran's relationship with Russia. Throughout Israel, the implementation of the ceasefire has soured relations with the United States somewhat, with many low-mid level officials making statements that they intend to continue targeting Iran's nuclear program. Analyst: S2A1 Research:

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//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z June 24, 2025// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: MIDDLE EAST CEASEFIRE IMPLEMENTED, IMMEDIATELY BROKEN. MASS SHOOTING PREVENTED OVER THE WEEKEND IN MICHIGAN.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Middle East: Following yesterday's missile attack on Al Udeid Air Base, President Trump announced the implementation of a ceasefire between Iran and Israel. This ceasefire was immediately broken. Though the details are hard to verify, in the interest of expediency the following is a rough timeline of how events have unfolded over the past 24 hours. June 23, 1630Z: Iranian forces carried out their counterattack via a ballistic missile strike on Al Udeid Air Base. June 23, 2202Z: President Trump announces the ceasefire terms in a post on Truth Social. In this post President Trump announced the time frames for when the ceasefire was intended to go into effect. June 24 - A few minutes after this announcement, Israeli forces sortied to carry out one of the largest bombing attacks they have conducted, after the ceasefire was announced, but before the ceasefire took effect. June 24 0110Z: Explosions were reported at Evin Prison and at a few others sites around Tehran. At some point during this attack, one Iranian missile was launched (according to President Trump, possibly in error), which did not impact any target in Israel. June 24 - Immediately following this possibly-errant launch (that took place during Israel's attack), Israeli forces planned to conduct a large-scale bombing of Tehran. This raid was to be carried out a day after the ceasefire took effect. June 24, 1128Z - President Trump, assessing that this "bomb everything we can before the ceasefire" mentality expressed by the Israelis was a bad-faith attempt to "cheat" the brokered deal, became belligerent on social media, urging Israeli forces to call off the attack. A few moments later, President Trump (being made aware that Israeli aircraft had already taken off), attempted to salvage the already-violated ceasefire directly by calling Netanyahu to urge him to call off the attack. A few minutes after this phone call, President Trump claimed that he had convinced Netanyahu to call off the attack, and that the Israeli planes would return to base after conducting a "plane wave" (no further information on what that means, but he was possibly referring to a flyby of some kind). June 24, 1257Z - Explosions were reported in Tehran, confirming that Israel ignored President Trump's ceasefire. Israeli media sources claim that instead of dropping all of their bombs (as they had planned) Israeli forces only bombed one target post-ceasefire due to President Trump's phone call. This remains unconfirmed at this time, however reports from locals on the ground claim that a radar site was struck north of Tehran. June 24, 1400Z- After this sortie, President Trump made statements to the media before departing on Marine One for a NATO summit. President Trump confirmed that Israel had broken the ceasefire deliberately, and that Iran had done so as well (but possibly in error). AC: As of this report, the Iranians have not responded to the post-ceasefire strike, and much of the prior details will likely be clarified in due time. -HomeFront- Michigan: On Sunday a mass shooting was successfully stopped by prepared citizens at the Crosspointe Community Church in Wayne. Local authorities state that Brian Anthony Browning approached the Church shortly before services began, and began shooting at the Church building. Upon witnessing the shooting taking place, one of the parishioners of the Church rammed the assailant with their vehicle in the parking lot, after which two armed parishioners returned fire on the suspect, halting the attack. Browning was killed in the attack, and one member of the Church was wounded. AC: Though the threats posed to Christian Churches around the world remain elevated due to the conflict in the Middle East, this appears to be more of a mental health incident than a traditional terror attack as locals have stated that a family member of the suspect was a member of the Church. Nevertheless, this case has proven that increased vigilance and situational awareness does indeed save lives. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: The concept of a "ceasefire" is something that is not often congruent with the Middle East region. In almost all cases, what are touted as hard-timelines by western nations are treated as loose guidelines by the belligerents involved on all sides. Most of the time, the term "ceasefire" works out to mean a general reduction of major offensive attacks; random airstrikes and rocket attacks usually continue along the front regardless of whatever agreement is reached. In the Middle East, the question isn't whether or not the ceasefire will hold, but hold long it will last before one or both sides violate it and the war kicks off again...it could be any period of time ranging from minutes to years. At this point, probably the best that anyone can hope from any "ceasefire" during this war is for the Iranians to stop launching ballistic missiles, and for the Israelis to stop bombing runs in Tehran. If these two very low-bar requirements can be met, the ceasefire (if we can even call it that) might last a few more weeks. Clearly, the recent statements by the White House and President Trump himself indicate that the United States considers the matter closed; bookending the spat by calling it the "Twelve Day War" implies that the war only lasted twelve days. However, this affair might not be over just yet. Analyst: S2A1 Research:

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//END REPORT//

//The Wire//1730Z June 23, 2025// //PRIORITY// //BLUF: IRANIAN COUNTERATTACK TARGETS US MILITARY BASES IN MIDDLE EAST. SHIPPING CONCERNS MOUNT AS IRAN THREATENS TO TARGET SHIPPING IN STRAIT OF HORMUZ.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- Middle East: This morning the kingdom of Qatar closed their airspace to commercial aviation traffic. Separately, both the United States and Britain issued shelter-in-place orders for their citizens. Shortly after these announcements, multiple Iranian ballistic missiles struck US military bases throughout the region. Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar appears to have been successfully targeted to some degree, and impacts were reported at the US Navy base in Bahrain. Reports have emerged indicating unknown bases in Iraq were also targeted by ballistic missiles. Shortly after the missiles were launched, American fighter aircraft were observed scrambling in Saudi Arabia, with a number of sorties being conducted on targets unknown. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: As this is a developing situation, the success of these missile strikes remains unknown until the dust settles. Video evidence indicates that many of the missiles were successfully intercepted, however some made it through to successfully impact their targets. Qatar announced that 100% of the missiles intended for their nation were successfully intercepted, however this remains unconfirmed at this time and Qatari media groups stated that at least three missiles evaded defenses to impact at Al Udeid. No word on casualties from any of the strikes reported so far today. Following the strikes on Iranian facilities over the weekend (and today's retaliatory strikes), tensions have escalated sharply throughout the region. Iranian forces have threatened to "close" the Strait of Hormuz, which traditionally involves the emplacement of sea mines throughout the choke point. There are no indications that IRGCN and/or IRIN vessels have laid any mines just yet. However, some commercial shipping companies that are unwilling to accept the risk have turned around and begun returning to their homeports. Analyst: S2A1 Research:

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//END REPORT//

//The Wire//1215Z June 22, 2025// //IMMEDIATE// //BLUF: UNITED STATES CONDUCTS AIRSTRIKES IN IRAN.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- Middle East: A few moments ago, President Trump posted a statement on social media, confirming that a series of airstrikes has been carried out at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan. In the post, President Trump stated that all of the aircraft involved are out of Iranian airspace, and has insinuated that this is a one-and-done series of attacks. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: As this is a developing situation, no additional details have been provided. President Trump has not yet held a press conference, nor has the White House, so every American is discovering that the United States has struck Iran from a single social media post. A few moments after this announcement, President Trump's account on Truth Social went offline, leading many to wonder if this was some sort of cybersecurity event. Further details are expected to emerge in due time, however right now we have nothing but the post from President Trump's Truth Social account. At this time, Congress has NOT declared war on Iran, however, if the hundreds of aircraft that have been moved into the CENTCOM theater over the past few days are any indication, this is probably not a one-and-done series of attacks. There are simply too many resources spread throughout the Middle East for this to be over just yet. Strategic Indications and Warnings: HFGCS traffic has been elevated over the past few days/weeks, however no extremely concerning EAMs have been detected over the past few hours. Radio chatter on the Russian BearNet is also quiet at this time. This strike lines up with the timing of the B2 Spirit stealth bombers which took off from Whiteman AFB this morning with what was assessed at the time to be a full payload of munitions. Analyst: S2A1 Research:

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//END REPORT//

This week's intel update is out 👍

//The Wire//2300Z June 20, 2025// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: STRATEGIC AVIATION AND NAVAL FORCES CONTINUE STAGING IN MIDDLE EAST.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Middle East: Targeting efforts by Iranian forces continue with multiple missile strikes being reported in Haifa overnight, targeting the Negev Advanced Technologies Park. Israeli targeting continues in similar fashion in Tehran. The United Kingdom has evacuated their Embassy in Tehran, and the United States continues to maneuver substantial resources into the Middle East. Maersk has announced that they are suspending all operations in the port city of Haifa while the war remains kinetic. AC: This afternoon a 5.4M earthquake was detected originating in the vicinity of Tehran. Considering that tensions are extremely high throughout the region, this has led many to theorize that some sort of weapons test was carried out (as nuclear tests are normally detected by seismic sensors). However, at the moment, nothing points to this outcome. The USGS plots the earthquake at an estimated depth of 10km, which is far deeper than a nuclear test would be. Additionally, the seismic signature of a man-made explosive device can easily be discerned from natural phenomenon, so if it was a man-made blast every seismologist in the world will be able to verify it. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: As the war continues in the Middle East, a bit of background knowledge may be helpful in understanding the grand strategy of the military tactics at hand. Both Israel and Iran are unique nations in that geography separates them, yet neither have any real expeditionary capability. In short, if a nation is at war with another...but doesn't share a land border or have a military with an amphibious capability... the most that nation can do is more or less to lob missiles at their adversary. So far, both nations have relied upon this long-distance targeting means as their primary way of waging war: Iran launches missiles, and the Israelis drop bombs. However, Israeli military doctrine is heavily reliant upon deception and subterfuge in order to project influence even within the nations they are at war with. Right now, it is becoming more clear that Israeli Special Forces are able to operate on the ground within Iran, in many cases with impunity. Israel was able to create a "drone base" in the desert from which their initial attacks were launched within Iran itself (echoing Ukraine's sneak attack in Russia). Similarly, Iranian forces have discovered several instances of equipment emplaced on the ground very close to sensitive sites; overnight the Iranians discovered a remotely-controlled Anti-Tank Guided Missile (ATGM) launcher emplaced outside Tehran, in addition to a small truck that was laden with drones (again, exactly as was used by Ukraine recently). Several propaganda videos of strikes in Iran have raised questions as to exactly how the footage was taken. For example, Israeli forces released the footage of the strikes on the Arak Heavy Water facility...footage which appears to have been filmed from an elevated position on the ground...not from a drone as one might expect. This will be important to consider as American involvement appears be looming. In less than two months, large-scale sneak-attacks via drones and asymmetric warfare tactics have become normalized in two major conflicts. This is not a threat that is years away; this threat has gone from the drawing board to operationally proven (twice) in just a few weeks. Analyst: S2A1 Research:

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//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2100Z June 19, 2025// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: MISSILE ATTACKS CONTINUE IN MIDDLE EAST AS USA CONTINUES WARTIME PREPARATIONS. DATA BREACH LEAKS 16 BILLION LOGIN CREDENTIALS.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Middle East: Missile attacks between Israel and Iran continue. Crude oil prices have increased in response to the concerns that Iranian forces may mine the Strait of Hormuz (as has been theorized as a possibility for a long time). Navigational issues remain palpable as GPS jamming and spoofing has prevented satellite navigation methods from being effective. US military logistical flights continue throughout the region, and non-essential personnel are still quietly being evacuated from various diplomatic posts (such as the US Embassy in Baghdad). This afternoon the White House stated that President Trump will make his decision on direct strikes against Iran within the next two weeks. AC: As with everything the White House has stated this week; this can be interpreted in many different ways. This could be a quiet way of telling Israel "no" without openly defying them, or (more likely) it could be stalling for time while American military assets continue to pour into the region. There is also a fairly good chance that the "2 week" time period is a deception tactic, and that a decision has been made that will come to fruition much sooner than that. -HomeFront- USA: This afternoon a new data breach was reported as approximately 16 billion login credentials have been leaked. Google, Apple, and Facebook are most affected by the breach, which was discovered back in May (though the magnitude of which has only recently become public). -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: The GPS jamming throughout the Strait of Hormuz may be the cause of the recent collision between oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman a few days ago. GPS jamming and spoofing in these waters has been extremely common over the past few decades, so it hasn't impacted operations that much more than normal. However, it's still a concern as operating in a GPS-denied environment makes things more challenging, and if crew members become complacent, tragedy can strike very quickly. Should things also go kinetic in the Strait of Hormuz, the rescue of crews onboard stricken commercial vessels will become more challenging due to these navigational issues. Analyst: S2A1 Research:

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//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z June 18, 2025// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: ESCALATIONS CONTINUE IN MIDDLE EAST. CONCERNS GROWING REGARDING SALE OF PUBLIC LANDS IN AMERICAN WEST.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Middle East: The war continues as before, with both Israeli and Iranian missile strikes taking place overnight. Both nations have also cracked down on internet use throughout their respective populations, due to operational security risks pertaining to how effective strikes actually were. The United States has begun the large-scale evacuation of citizens from Israel, which is being carried out via commercial cruise ships, as Ben-Gurion Airport was closed to all commercial flights last Friday, until further notice. At the moment Israeli citizens are not permitted to leave the country, as the Transportation Minister has enacted the wartime policy forbidding citizens from departing. -HomeFront- Washington D.C. - Diplomatic efforts continue as before, with varying statements being made by the White House regarding the situation in the Middle East. Earlier yesterday afternoon, journalists in the press corps stated that they were told that President Trump would address the nation, however a short time after this announcement the speech was canceled and the White House called a lid for the day. This afternoon the White House stated that President Trump has not yet made the decision to strike Iran or not, though multiple Situation Room meetings have occurred throughout the past few days. Western USA: Concern is growing regarding the potential sale of public lands throughout the region. Over the past few days, information has leaked pertaining to the recent reconciliation bill in the Senate. Though this verbiage is still being considered, the latest draft of the amendment to the "Big Beautiful Bill" allegedly allows the sale of roughly 3 million acres of public lands. AC: This sale is not yet set in stone, and details are very vague regarding what the impact of this potential sale might actually be. All of these concerns can be eliminated simply by the swipe of a pen, however going off of the information that is available right now, concerns are mounting. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: More strategically, the large-scale deployment of military assets continues as before. Some airfields are being packed with airframes, while other bases (which are within range of Iranian missiles) are being emptied out to protect assets from retaliatory strikes. Overnight, CNN reported that the USS GERALD FORD (CVN-78) has been ordered to deploy to the Mediterranean Sea, to supplement the two Carrier Strike Groups already in the CENTCOM theater. The FORD has not departed port yet, and this deployment may not necessarily be a rapid and unplanned endeavor; the FORD was scheduled to undertake a routine deployment this summer anyway. However, three CSG's in CENTCOM is not particularly a sign indicating peace. Analyst: S2A1 Research:

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//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z June 17, 2025// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: STRATEGIC BUILDUP CONTINUES AS USA CONTINUES PLANS FOR WAR WITH IRAN.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Middle East: The previously observed strategic buildup of tanker aircraft continues, as over a dozen KC-135's moved from Europe to the Middle East overnight. Most of these tankers were flying under the "GOLD" callsign, indicating that they were flying in formation with fighter aircraft in tow. This morning, satellite imagery confirmed that almost every US Navy warship stationed in Bahrain has departed port, to include one Littoral Combat Ship, a few minesweepers, and over a dozen support vessels. This morning President Trump stated that the United States has achieved aerial superiority in the skies over Iran. President Trump also has taken to social media to demand the "unconditional surrender" of Iran, and has threatened to assassinate the Ayatollah if demands are not met. Strait of Hormuz: Overnight, two ships collided in the Gulf of Oman. The M/T FRONT EAGLE collided with the M/T ADALYNN, causing a large fire. Rescue operations are ongoing. AC: Despite early reports, this incident is not the result of combat action. It is not clear why, however the FRONT EAGLE executed a turn hard to starboard, which resulted in her collision with the ADALYNN. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: At this point, it is challenging to interpret the recent statements by the White House in any other manner than that a formal declaration of war with Iran is merely a formality. The decision to go to war may have already been signed and sealed as theorized months ago, or the die might not have been cast just yet. Either way, there's absolutely nothing that the American people can do about it at this point, other than improve personal readiness as best one can. Though tensions are palpably high right now, the real challenges will come many months after the US enters into a war with Iran, should that be the chosen course of action. More tactically, the threats to the average citizen living in the American homeland remain, though with debatable levels of severity due to the sheer uncertainty of what the threat really is. Anytime the United States targets anything in the Middle East, the potential for lone-wolf-style attacks here in the homeland increases. At the moment, however, the risks of a false-flag incident occurring to drag the United States into a war is also very high. Protests with varying levels of severity continue more or less persistently in many major US cities, which will present risks regardless of what's happening in the international space. Analyst: S2A1 Research:

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//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z June 16, 2025// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: STRATEGIC MILITARY MOVEMENT INCREASES AMID EXPANSION OF THE WAR IN THE MIDDLE EAST. DOMESTIC INCIDENTS CONTINUE AT PROTESTS AND LARGE PUBLIC EVENTS.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Middle East: Over the weekend, many successful ballistic missile strikes on Israel were reported, with military installations in Tel Aviv and POL refineries in Haifa being targeted by Iranian forces. In response, Israeli forces have continued strikes on various Iranian targets in Tehran and throughout the nation. Both Israel and Iran have issued warnings to each others' populations, warning of continued attacks on both Tehran and Tel Aviv. -HomeFront- Utah: A potential mass shooter was reported at the "No Kings" protest in Salt Lake City Saturday afternoon. One of the internal security personnel at the event spotted an individual open-carrying a rifle and maneuvering toward the protest event. The individual opened fire on the man with the rifle, wounding him, but killing a bystander in the process. The individual carrying the rifle has been identified as Arturo Roberto Gamboa, who was arrested at the scene. Also in Utah, a mass shooting was reported at the "Westfest" carnival in West Valley. 3x people were killed in the engagement, and 2x others were wounded. AC: This shooting appears to be the result of a verbal altercation and/or gang activity, and not a deliberate attack. Most of the individuals involved in the shooting were unidentified minors, and most of the casualties were bystanders. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: In the Middle East, indications and warnings have emerged regarding the potential involvement of the United States in the war. The USS NIMITZ (CVN-68) CSG has begun maneuvering to the region, and was spotted transiting the Singapore Strait this morning. The NIMITZ is expected to supplement the USS CARL VINSON (CVN-70) CSG, bringing the count of aircraft carriers in theater to two. Overnight, approximately 32x US Air Force KC-135 and KC-46 refueling aircraft were observed departing their bases in the United States, heading east. Most of these refuelers landed in Spain, with a few being scattered at other bases throughout the EUCOM theater. So far, there's been no acknowledgement by the Pentagon as to the reason why these aircraft have been forward deployed. No journalist and/or influencer in the Pentagon or White House press pool has figured out this development either, so no one with access to directly ask the question even knows about this movement yet. Answers may arrive in a few days after the mainstream media figures out what happened, as this is a major indication and warning of impending strategic needs for refueling aircraft. Many have theorized that these aircraft are scheduled to take part in a NATO exercise in Finland, however, this does not appear to be likely. Some may indeed be positioned for taking part in drills, but right now the total number of assets deployed is vastly more than should be expected for an exercise. Regarding the shooting in Salt Lake City, situations of unrest often result in a change of dynamic when it comes to small arms engagements. In a large crowd of people, there's no telling what might happen, but more importantly if something *does* happen there are very few ways of mitigating the effects. In this case, the media is spinning this as a "peaceful protester" being accidentally shot by another "peaceful protester", when in reality the situation has a bit more nuance than that. The protesters acting as security for the event saw an individual in black bloc clothing approaching the event with a slung rifle, and decided to engage. Whether Gamboa was actually intending to conduct a mass shooting will be argued in court, however these protests remain very high-risk events to attend, in one way or another. Analyst: S2A1 Research:

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//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z June 14, 2025// //PRIORITY// //BLUF: CONGRESSWOMAN ASSASSINATED, SENATOR WOUNDED IN MINNESOTA. ASSAILANT REMAINS AT LARGE. NATIONWIDE 'NO KINGS' PROTESTS REMAIN LARGELY LOW-INTENSITY DURING DAYLIGHT, THOUGH SEVERAL INCIDENTS REPORTED. NATIONWIDE COUNTER-ICE PROTESTS REMAIN MORE KINETIC.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Middle East: The Israeli/Iranian War continues as before, with both nations continuing to trade missiles overnight. Israeli forces have conducted more strikes targeting Iranian Petroleum, Oil, and Lubricant (POL) production facilities, and Iranian forces have responded by striking the POL refinery in Haifa. -HomeFront- USA: Most of the "No Kings" protests did go ahead as planned, though as expected turnout was comparatively low throughout the morning in most areas. During the daytime protest events, most of the participants at most of the "No Kings" protests have been elderly, which resulted in most of the No Kings events remaining relatively low-impact. However, many Counter-ICE protests were conducted separately around the nation, many of which became kinetic. Standard cases of vandalism, civil unrest, and violence were reported in Los Angles, Chicago, NYC, Seattle, and several other major cities. Minnesota: Overnight, an individual posing as a police officer conducted multiple assassination attempts at the homes of two local politicians in Minneapolis. State Senator John Hoffman and his wife were ambushed at their home in Champlin by a gunman who posed as a police officer. Both were wounded during the attack. Later that same night, State Representative Melissa Hortman and her husband Mark were ambushed in their home in Brooklyn Park. Both Hortman and her husband were killed in the attack. Due to the similarities in their names, and these incidents taking place in close proximity to each other, the full casualty count regarding these attacks is as follows: Senator John Hoffman - Wounded at the scene in Champlin, expected to survive Yvette Hoffman (his wife) - Wounded at the scene in Champlin, expected to survive Representative Melissa Hortman - Killed at the scene in Brooklyn Park Mark Hortman (her husband) - Critically wounded at scene in Brooklyn Park, later died at the hospital. The assailant remains at large, and a manhunt is underway in the Brooklyn Park area to locate the suspect. The suspect's vehicle (which was camouflaged to appear as a police cruiser) was recovered at the scene of the second series of murders. Inside the vehicle, were stacks of handwritten leaflets marked "No Kings", referencing today's planned protest events. Also found inside the vehicle was a hit list referencing targeting efforts of other politicians, however the details of this document have not yet been released. Texas: This morning a fire was reported at the Marathon Refinery in Texas City. In Austin, the State Capitol was evacuated this afternoon, after an unidentified threat was presented to lawmakers. As of this afternoon, no amplifying information has been released regarding this incident. Virginia: A vehicle ramming attack was attempted in Culpeper, as an individual drove his vehicle into one of the "No Kings" protests that was dispersing. Local authorities state that Joseph Checklick Jr. intentionally accelerated into the crowd, striking one person in the process. The assailant was arrested at the scene. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: At the moment, the assassinations (and attempts) in Minnesota are highly controversial topics and speculation does not often make the situation any better. However, in this case some speculation is needed to convey the potential future threats that may be ongoing due to the fugitive remaining at large. When time is of the essence, speculation that aids in the success of an investigation is doctrinally acceptable. As such, the possibility must be considered that this may have been the actions of not just a lone gunman and/or a mental case, but rather a deliberate assassination at the behest of significantly powerful organizations and/or populations. A few days ago, Rep. Hortman crossed party lines to be the only Democrat that voted with the Republicans to support a bill that would ban illegal immigrants from receiving Minnesota state welfare benefits. Most notably, Rep. Hortman participated in several media interviews being visibly upset for begrudgingly supporting the bill. Clearly, local authorities also suspect the link to be related to a political issue (since Hoffman and Hortman worked together). After the report of the shooting at Hoffman's home, authorities raced to Hortman's home a few miles away to "preemptively check on" the Congresswoman. After arriving at Hortman's house, police ran into the shooter, who was exiting the structure having already committed the shootings inside. After a brief small arms skirmish, the suspect evaded capture and departed from the area, prompting the large manhunt. Regarding the shooter's identity, authorities claim that the individual is Vance Luther Boelter, a senior advisor and political activist who was appointed by Gov. Tim Walz to serve on the Governor's Workforce Development Board back in 2019. However, details surrounding the suspect's connections will be confusing until more information becomes public. While it's easy to assume the connection to Hortman due to her voting history, at the moment it's possible she wasn't the primary target...Hoffman and his wife were targeted first. Considering that a hit list was discovered at the scene, it is extremely likely that the officers who had the idea to check on Hortman saved lives. Unfortunately, Hortman and her husband did not survive the assassination attempt, but the officers engaging the suspect (and thus causing him to flee on foot) very likely prevented the shooter from continuing down his hit list to the next target. Analyst: S2A1 Research:

S2 Underground GhostNotes

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//END REPORT//

This week’s intel update is out! Yes, I know a day early, but I wanted to have some free space for flexibility as the weekend has the potential to get pretty busy. Hopefully not, but we’ll see 👍

//The Wire//0300Z June 13, 2025// //PRIORITY// //BLUF: ISRAEL STRIKES IRANIAN NUCLEAR SITES. IRAN VOWS RETALIATION//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Middle East: A few moments ago Israeli forces conducted large-scale missile strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities scattered around the nation. The Uranium enrichment and storage facility at Natanz is currently on fire, and the Heavy Water manufacturing center at Arak has also been struck. Several decapitation strikes were reported among key leaders in Tehran, with the leadership of the Iranian nuclear program being the chief target for the first wave of targeting efforts. AC: Regarding other sites, the fog of war prevents an accurate assessment of which locations have been struck, so the battle damage assessments will have to wait a few hours while the dust settles. Iranian media is currently reporting that Iran is expected to officially declare war soon, though this may be more of a reflection of battlefield excitement rather than official government policy. -HomeFront- Washington D.C. - Immediately after the first strikes were reported, Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that the United States was not involved in these strikes. Texas: A ground stop has been issued for the George Bush Intercontinental Airport in Houston. AC: At the moment it's not clear as to what the ground stop is in reference to, other than a general security incident. More details will have to follow later on. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: Right now, the immediate concerns center around a near-mid-far threat assessment model, both in terms of physical distance and time: Local threats take precedent over far-away threats, and fast-paced, time sensitive problems must be handled before long term problems that can wait. At the moment, 'near' threat concerns involve potential malign actors conducting attacks in the United States, 'mid-range' concerns pertain to logistics, shipping, and the US personnel that may be within range of any potential Iranian counterattack. Long-term concerns will develop later on as the world awaits Iran's response. Iran does not have the capability to directly strike the American homeland, but they can certainly strike many critical American sites around the Middle East. Considering that Iran had at least four days of very obvious advanced notice of these attacks, that will be a factor to consider as events develop. Locally to the homefronts of most Western nations, the chief concern is that of Iranian agents, saboteurs, and sympathizers that may be located in positions to cause problems. There are no specific threats that have come to light regarding potential terrorism within the homeland as retaliation, however those indicators would probably not be discernible before any attack anyway. Regardless of the politics behind this action, both pro-Israel and pro-Palestine protests are now extremely high-risk events to attend or be located near. Currently the social situation in the United States is primed for any kinetic activity which may strike the match and light the fuse of the tensions that have been building for some time. The context of the thousands of kinetic protests being undertaken right now in nearly every single US State must also be considered; there is enough overlap between the demonstrators currently causing problems, and those who seek to carry out more substantial attacks. Analyst: S2A1 Research:

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//The Wire//2200Z June 12, 2025// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: COMMERCIAL AIRLINER CRASHES IN INDIA, 260 FATALITIES CONFIRMED SO FAR. TENSIONS CONTINUE IN MIDDLE EAST. RIOTS CONTINUE IN NORTHERN IRELAND AND USA.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- India: This morning Air India Flight 171 crashed shortly after takeoff from Ahmedabad. The aircraft impacted the student housing at B.J. Medical College, a teaching hospital and large medical facility. Local authorities have claimed that there was only one survivor among the 242 souls on board. There is no confirmation on casualties sustained on the ground, however locals have provided the figure of 260 casualties all total (both those in the aircraft and on the ground). Aircraft debris is spread over a wide area throughout a densely-populated region, so the casualty count is expected to rise as recovery efforts continue. Northern Ireland: Protests and riots alike continued throughout the region overnight, with locals continuing arson attacks on migrant centers. Yesterday afternoon, locals discovered that the family members of the migrants who assaulted a child (the incident that started all of this) were temporarily evacuated to a Leisure Center in Larne, which was promptly burned down by locals. Riots continued in Ballymena, and vandalism efforts have disrupted local train services as obstacles and fires were set on train tracks in a few locations around the area. Middle East: Indications and warnings continue to mount regarding a potential war with Iran. The US State Department continues to issue region-wide warnings, though no specifics have been provided regarding the potential threats. AC: Considering all possibilities, the recent threat warnings issued by the White House could also be a ruse, specifically an ambiguity-decreasing information operation. In other words, it could be a trick to pressure the Iranians into making a deal with regards to their nuclear aspirations. Either way, it is a dangerous game, and increased vigilance is recommended in any case due to the uncertainty of how events might transpire over the next few days. -HomeFront- Texas: Governor Greg Abbott has ordered the deployment of approximately 5,000 National Guard soldiers in preparation for the mass demonstration events planned for this weekend. These forces will augment the thousands of local and state police which have been tasked with keeping order during the thousands of protests that will take place around the nation on Saturday. California: This afternoon U.S. Senator Alex Padilla was arrested after attempting to disrupt a press conference at which DHS Secretary Kristi Noem was speaking. Senator Padilla resisted being removed from the room after causing the disruption, and was subsequently arrested by force in the hallway outside the event. The Senator was released shortly after the incident, and as of yet has not been charged. USA: This afternoon a large scale communications outage was reported throughout the nation. Cloudflare, AWS, and Google Cloud all reported simultaneous issues with their platforms and services. AC: No cause of the outages has been reported, however this is a major incident considering the timing of multiple independent systems going offline at the same time. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: When it comes to the chaos and kinetic activities in Northern Ireland, there are two main lines of effort by involved parties: There are the ethnically Irish protesters-turned-rioters, who have engaged in arson attacks in migrant communities in response to immigration issues. Separate from these incidents, looting has been observed taking place, which is largely being carried out by migrant communities themselves. This is complicating efforts to host legitimately peaceful demonstrations, as the situation in some areas is simply too chaotic to determine exactly what's going on. The situation in Northern Ireland has never been simple to describe, and it's been made worse by the establishment of migrant centers in local Irish communities. In India, right now it's too soon to determine exactly what caused the crash of Flight 171. However local media claims that a mayday call was issued by the pilots immediately after takeoff, though in the short time between the call and the crash, it's not clear what might have happened. Video footage from shortly before the crash also indicates that the aircraft's flaps were fully retracted, which is very abnormal for any aircraft on takeoff, let along a very heavy long-haul flight fully laden with passengers and fuel. Analyst: S2A1 Research:

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//The Wire//2000Z June 11, 2025// //PRIORITY// //BLUF: INDICATIONS AND WARNINGS EMERGE REGARDING DEVELOPMENTS IN MIDDLE EAST. RIOTS CONTINUE TO EXPAND IN MANY MAJOR U.S. CITIES. RIOTS IN NORTHERN IRELAND BECOME MORE KINETIC.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Middle East: Indications and warnings are growing regarding an unknown threat to the United States throughout the region. Reports have emerged indicating that the US Navy base in Bahrain is at an increased defensive posture, and that non-essential staffers and their families are currently being evacuated from the American Embassies in Baghdad, Kuwait, and Bahrain. A few moments ago the UKMTO office also issued a very vague warning statement, advising mariners to be advised of increasing tensions through the Strait of Hormuz. AC: At the moment, none of this is confirmed, but the rumors are trickling out anyway, since this appears to be a very time-sensitive threat, whatever it is. Nobody knows what's going on for sure, but a lot of diplomatic stations and military bases are at an increased level of readiness right now, which looks to be related to a very specific threat of some kind. Shooting from the hip (without any solid detail to go on), this could be related to an imminent Iranian nuclear test, or it could be related to Israel launching pre-emptive strikes to prevent such. Either way, the threat is extremely vague, but the heightened readiness seems real enough. Northern Ireland: Protests transitioned into rioting throughout several cities overnight, from a few different perspectives. Originally, riots broke out over the weekend in response to immigration issues and the assault of a child. However, as unrest has spread, opportunistic criminals have taken advantage of the fray to conduct looting that was unrelated to the initial incident. -HomeFront- USA: Counter-ICE protests have emerged in several major cities around the nation. So far, most of the more disruptive events have taken place in Los Angeles, Dallas, Austin, Seattle, Chicago, Atlanta, NYC, Providence, and Denver. Ohio: This morning evacuations were ordered for Vinton County after an industrial accident occurred at a local explosives factory in McArthur. Local authorities state that a very large tank of nitric acid began leaking at Austin Powders this morning, prompting the creation of a substantially large evacuation zone. The FAA has also placed a 30-mile Temporary Flight Restriction over the facility as the contents of the tank continue to present a hazard to the general area. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: Last night the city of Los Angeles implemented a curfew for the city center, in an attempt to quell the rioting. Mass arrests were made in the DTLA area, however a state of civil unrest remains as demonstrations and protests have remained fairly persistent over the past week. Regarding the protest events for this weekend nationwide, roughly 1,655 events are scheduled for June 14th, most of which are being conducted and organized by the "No Kings" cause. Of course, it is highly likely that not all of these 1,600+ events will take place. However, there is always the possibility that areas which have no history of political unrest may be the recipient of general shenanigans this weekend. Analyst: S2A1 Research:

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//END REPORT//