China Morning Missive Will fully admit, China going full “visa on arrival” was something I never expected. Then again, it has been a brilliant move. Tourists from all over are making their way to the Mainland. Shanghai is essentially fully back to the pre-Covid days of foreigners roaming the streets. What has been interesting to watch are the reactions. So far this year I’ve had a half dozen friends and/or family travel through and each – to the man and woman – have left completely flabbergasted. The make the point of there being an obvious disconnect between what was expected and reality. Again, everyone made the point that China isn’t at all how it is presented in the American or European media. Most will also comment that China feels like living in the future. Suspect that is more a case of a massive lack of investment by American and Europe. None of this is a surprise to me, but I am very thankful that more and more people are making their way to China and getting a first hand look for themselves. Highly recommend a trip for all of you out there. And if you do make it to Shanghai, be sure to let me know.

AP News

Citizens of more than 70 countries can now visit China without a visa

China now allows citizens from 74 countries to enter visa-free for up to 30 days. This policy aims to boost tourism, the economy, and China's globa...

For the longest time, I’ve made the point that all critiques of #China are warranted. At the same time though, it has also been obvious that those critiques have been woefully incomplete. Selective in how they are presented. What has been far more evident to me is a G7 leadership that is increasingly feeling cornered. Debt is weighing down the system all over. If the only way out is through, then NATO sees that the only way through as WAR. As an act of screaming into the void here I am making the point that when the head of NATO publicly states that his outlook isn’t just for Russia to expand farther with its aggression and directly attack Europe but that this will be done at the behest of China. The quote below comes from Mark Rutte, the current head of NATO. “There’s an increasing realization, and let’s not be naive about this: If Xi Jinping would attack Taiwan, he would first make sure that he makes a call to his very junior partner in all of this, Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin, residing in Moscow, and telling him, ‘Hey, I’m going to do this, and I need you to keep them busy in Europe by attacking NATO territory,'” Rutte told the New York Times Again, this is the Secretary General of NATO going on the record expecting war. #madness.

NATO chief predicts how China could set off World War III: 'Let's not be naive about this'

China Morning Missive Are you, at all, interested in the development of the Chinese AI stack? Well, this recent piece by RAND does a rather decent job of laying out all of the specifics. Full disclosure, I am not a fan of RAND, but props are due for the rather comprehensive assessment of the Chinese Ai stack. It is rather balanced, but RAND being RAND, the piece is littered with more than its fair share of cope. The final assessment is that China is building a competitive AI ecosystem although not a likely competitor to what is being built in the US. From what I’ve witnessed this is an errant conclusion to make. What confounds me to no end though is how American policy makers, and those on bended knee in the Beltway (such as RAND) continue to underestimate the ability of China to exceed expectations. In fact, I would place this error as being the single most critical point when it comes to why China continues to outpace America year in and year out.

China

China wants to become the global leader in artificial intelligence by 2030. Beijing is deploying industrial policy tools across the full AI technol...

Posting a second video on China. Another short musing of an American who has lived in Shanghai for 30 years. If any of you out there have a specific topic that you’d like for me to address, send it through. Far more interested in addressing issues raised by others. Quick note. Wanted to just directly upload the video to Nostr but continues to run into uploading issues with Damus and Primal. Will hopefully have those issue ironed out when I post the next video.

Coming fast and furious now. Synopsys also back in business with %China. Tokyo Electron and ASML I would expect are set to join the fray in the next day or two. Perfect timing given that it's July 4th and the Big Beautiful Bill is sucking the air out of all conversations. Is anyone really going to pay attention to tis development? U.S. lifts chip software curbs on China amid trade truce, Synopsys says

CNBC

U.S. lifts chip software curbs on China in sign of trade truce

The U.S. government has rescinded its export restrictions on chip design software to China, U.S.-based Synopsys announced.

China Morning Missive Very much as expected. While details remain limited, the quid pro quo for China agreeing to resume rare earth exports was that America would lift the export controls of advance chip and chip related technologies. No wonder the Trump team refused to release any details from the recent London meeting and the details need to come from Siemens of all sources to confirm what pretty much everyone expected. Limiting China’s access to these sorts of “national security” inputs is a very much bipartisan issue throughout Congress. Give it a week and then expect a blow back from various corners of the Beltway. For myself, the writing was clearly on the wall the moment China hastily agreed to reconvene with Bessent and his team in London the other week. Rare earths restrictions were having a direct and immediate impact on a swath of American industries. Trump had to deal. Moreover, Trump had to deal on the terms set out by China. Finally, the parties not just agreeing to terms over a short two day period, and then “inking” that deal roughly a week later was further evidence, at least to me, that China ended up getting pretty much everything it asked for. The Chinese NEVER enter and conclude negotiations that quickly unless they do get what they want. Moving forward, this should be a clear example of how the bilateral relationship will operate. When China squeezes, and they have a plethora of areas where they can squeeze, the American side will have no choice but to capitulate regardless of what Trump posts on social media or what the headlines might read. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/siemens-says-us-has-lifted-chip-software-curbs-china-bloomberg-news-reports-2025-07-03/

Speaking of Huawei, just stumbled upon this classic US govt tactic. If you can’t compete or are looking to kneecap a global competitor go with Extrajudicial reach. Criminal charge? Trading with Iran https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/chinas-huawei-must-face-us-criminal-charges-judge-rules-2025-07-01/

China Morning Missive Not a week goes by, it seems, without a Chinese tech group announcing some new AI development. This time we have Huawei and the announced open-sourcing of its AI models. What’s particularly interesting about this development is that the Huawei models were built using the company’s own Ascend chips which I believe is a first. It is yet to be seen how the performance of these AI models will compare to all of the others now in the market, both from China and those developed in America. The fact remains; the ongoing American policy of containment is continuing to demonstrate a lack of any real teeth. All that has been achieved through this policy of containment is to incentivize Chinese industry to pick up the mantle and brute force its way to innovate around all obstacles. And China has an excess of brainpower to throw at all such problems. All I will share is that DeepSeek entered the zeitgeist FIVE months ago. Since then it has been nothing but rapid forward progress. The Little Dutch Boy only has so many fingers and the Chinese dam of technological innovation continues to flow forward.

CNBC

China's Huawei open-sources AI models as it seeks adoption across the global AI market

Huawei has open-sourced more of its AI models. Tech experts say it'll help the U.S.-blacklisted company continue to expand throughout the AI ecosys...

There’s nothing better than “number go up” technology especially when you know/understand which number actually matters most.

Clutch those pearls. For all the finger pointing directed at #China, it isn’t often you see a sitting President state the obvious. “Yeah! Well, we do that too.” There are no heroes and there are no villains, only nation states seeking to gain an advantage over any/all rivals.

The Independent

Trump leaves Maria Bartiromo speechless after suggesting US is hacking China

‘That

China Morning Missive It might be best to take the “over” on this declaration by Trump. There’s already been multiple extensions to the legally required sale and/or ban of TikTok in the US and here we still are. Knowing the Chinese, the sale will only take place if there are material concessions provided by the Trump administration including a lifting of export restrictions on chip and chip related technologies. I just don’t see any of that happening, or at least being made public. My expectation is for all of this to continue to fester and for there to be yet another “extension” of the ban come September. I also continue to state that if Trump and his team are unable to come to come agreement with China of a social media app, when does this tell of how capable the Trump team is in combating China on those issues that truly matter. https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/society-equity/trump-says-fox-interview-he-has-group-wealthy-people-buy-tiktok-2025-06-29/

China (Sunday) Morning Missive An interesting take here in the SCMP, but both WeChat and Alipay - both of which I use daily - aren’t anywhere close to being similar to a stablecoin. Both platforms are directly linked to my bank account and both act as more of a debit card alternative as opposed to a stablecoin. Still, it is interesting to see a quasi-State Owned investment bank - CICC - jumping into the conversation. No doubt that Beijing is watching closely at the rollout of the GENIUS Act. Keep in mind, too, that Hong Kong passed its own stablecoin law just a few weeks back. There’s also been more chatter on local social media on the subject of stablecoins and a growing expectation of Beijing looking to follow - somehow - in the footsteps of the US. Nothing concrete mind you.

South China Morning Post

China’s stablecoin edge? WeChat and Alipay, says top economist

As calls grow for Beijing to embrace digital currencies, e-payment giants seen as aiding yuan’s global push.