And yet another typhoon is heading towards the Shanghai area. Losing track of how many there have been so far this year.

For those interested, another long form China interview. Still hammering the point that people need to “open the aperture” when attempting to gain insight into the lives China is making. https://www.youtube.com/live/YqiY4zHg3dc?is=PpxbfDItaNfyAp-s

Chinese DRAM maker CXMT has just started trading. The Hyperliquid degenerates will need to review this chart at the end of the week. Maybe a good trade if you can time it all correctly. Otherwise, the price is way too high.

This is the Time Magazine cover

This week’s Time Magazine cover story. Unitree Robotics. Should also mention that the company will be kicking off its own IPO on a matter of days. https://time.com/article/2026/07/23/unitree-china-human-robotics/

And the hits keep on coming. The downside of heightened regulatory capture is a radical reduction in any urgency to innovate and compete. What you are now seeing play out in the open versus closed source models can be traced back (the original sin) to the 2018 sanctions placed on Huawei and ZTE. It became existential not just for the Beijing leadership but for China’s entire tech ecosystem. U.S. official: Moonshot AI accessed Nvidia's chips despite Chinese export ban

CNBC

Moonshot AI accessed Nvidia's chips despite Chinese export ban, White House official says

A White House official said Moonshot AI, which released the powerful Kimi K3 model last week, accessed Nvidia's GB300 chips in Thailand.

Starting to see some commentary centered on Chinese open source models “used by criminals” as an argument for restricting access. Now where have I heard that argument before?

This should be fun. Trump administration looking at ways to curtail access to Chinese open source models. My thinking is that they’re not though through all the second and third order effects from such a move.

Last week as insane here with China delivering a series of body blows to the American “tech stack”. Xi Jinping, the Chairman of the Communist Party of China gave his full throated support to open source AI development. Never in my wildest dreams would I have expected “The Party” to take such position. Moonshot releases Kimi K3 and the model quickly becomes the center of everyone’s attention. And not only is there a consensus that the performance is just shy of the American frontier models, but there aren’t any guardrails. Just use Kimi to do what you need to do. It was only a month ago with Zhipu released GLM 5.2. The iteration process in just instance. Finally, there was the listing of CXMT which is now the largest IPO of a Chinese company in a decade. The company is set to raise some $8billion all of which will be deployed to aggressively expand DRAM production capacity. The impact has been immediate if you just look at the price action of Samsung, SK Hynix and Micro. I have no idea what to expect sitting here first thing on yet another Monday Morning.

Um, there would appear to be some chatter that Trump is about to go Medieval on China during his speech tonight.

CBS News

Trump gives primetime speech on elections as White House alleges Chinese access to voter data

President Trump gave a primetime address on elections tonight, as he remains focused on the 2020 race.

Knowing something about how the IPO process here in China is run has me highly doubtful of a Deepseek listing this year, but it’s the messaging that counts. Same, goes for CXMT going public this week. A maximum pressure campaign. Sowing the seeds of doubt as to the economic efficacy (ie valuations) among those companies operating the American “stack” Will now be paying even closer attention to Xi’s speech on Friday.

The Straits Times

DeepSeek IPO plans: Filing by end-2026 for 2027 debut

Chinese AI pioneer DeepSeek is preparing for an IPO filing as early as 2026, targeting a 2027 debut in the burgeoning Chinese tech industry. Read m...

Well, this is certainly an unexpected development. The question now is what the message will be. Back in 2018 Xi gave a keynote speech at the inaugural Import Expo here in Shanghai. He announced the launch of the STAR market. I’d wager the message this time around will be directed far further than AI. A presentation of the need for global cooperation and coordination. There’s the ongoing trade friction with Europe that will need to be sorted out and China just released trade data for June. The surplus remains on course for yet another massive record, potentially up 25% YoY to $1.5tr. Back to AI. What I am fairly certain of is that the Xi speech will be accompanied by the American commentariat finding yet another excuse to raise the “national security” alarm.

Free Press Journal

Xi Jinping To Make First Appearance At China

Chinese President Xi Jinping will attend and deliver the keynote at the World AI Conference in Shanghai for the first time on July 17. His appearan...

Damn! This was a massive typhoon in terms of size.

Ahhh the good ol’ days.

Happy 250th all from Shanghai. Only flag that officially flies here.

IYKYK

For those of you monitoring the AI pitched battle between China and the United States, I would strongly advise watching this very short clip. This is Frank Dikotter and from his comments you will find how supposed China scholars continue to dismiss outright how formidable China is as a rival. He is also a Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institute which, for me, remains a primary platform that continues to errantly downplay China’s ability to not just compete but its ability to successfully wage unconstrained warfare. The hubris and conceit that permeates throughout the American Think Tank and policy communities infuriates me to no end. China needs to be take both literally and seriously.

Let’s see if I can upload this video.

Gold accumulation funds are gaining traction here in Shanghai. Had a unique conversation over dinner on the weekend. Topic came up and I asked about taking physical ownership. Many there said you could do so. I asked if anyone had tried to get the gold from the bank. No one had tried. The next day (a Sunday I might add) several of those people went to the bank and took delivery. Then sent me the pic below on WeChat. A 10 grab bar with certification.

The weekend Shanghai breakfast lines. If you see people gathering then you know you found the right spot.