How it started, how it's going YTD. The $BTC data is about one day delayed but the seasonality appears to be playing out. #Bitcoin

Watch $BTC last quarter's pivots carefully. Will #Bitcoin break last quarter's high and go momo up? Or do we remain inside quarter and setup for something in Q1 2024? #trading

VIX marked the upper BF trendline and sellers stepped in. Times like this are notable. The bears got everything they could ask for but couldn't hold on to the gains. Now the US 10-year yields are pulling back and $EURUSD is firming up. It looks likely that we will get a bounce in equities. So with the risk-on back in equities, will flows continue to pile into crypto as it has been negatively correlated with the SPY/QQQ lately? Or do we get the coveted rally in both equities and crypto to close out Uptober?

Keep an eye on the Yen which is set to break down. USDJPY weekly outside-inside and up. What will be the macro catalyst to ignite the move?🔥 https://iris.to/note1wytf8fe9uqvw0v6lqt8pxd0qas754rpeg40zmdsquaxswxw0hrcqaqkw7m

The inverse Cramer indicator is undefeated. 🤣

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$BTC has reclaimed the 27508 pivot point which brings the monthly inside and up break back into play. We still have some weak market structure around the 29000 area that I'm watching to fill.

gm $BTC seasonality continues to play out as noted previously, so I hope you loaded the boat on this dip. Remember, when you see the crowd all leaning on one side of the boat, you need to lean the other way. #trading #bitcoin

As noted, we retested the 27176 pivot on $BTC. ✅ Breadth in the crypto market is extended to the downside. ✅ The risk/reward now favors being long and I will start accumulating around these levels. 📉📈 https://iris.to/note1kn6n8kr5v5u65ulj9c5zt9qkx236xs4hh7ea8ymhe7dsq87mh8hspevcvc Catching the exact bottom is not always easy so a good tactic is to leg into the trade and add on potential weakness and/or confirmation of the reversal. A break back above 27508 puts the monthly breakout back in play. #Bitcoin #trading

PSA - Markets don't bottom on Fridays. 📉

NFP #'s came in way too hot. 🔥 It will be difficult for the Fed to justify a slowdown in rate hikes if it continues its "data-dependent" stance. Look at the reaction on the US 10 year yields.

Thanks for playing along. $SPY $VIX

So you thought it was going to be up-only Uptober? Think again. Looking back at the average weekly returns for $BTC since 2010, week 40 has traditionally been a weak week. So if you subscribe to seasonality, this week should mark the local bottom. If you're a more active trader, you can start looking for bottoming formations that, if they work, will provide good asymmetric upside. #trading #Bitcoin

By now, most of you have probably seen a chart similar to this one, which shows that September is historically a seasonally weak month for $BTC. An interesting follow-up question is what does history have to say about months where September was actually positive? Was the following month and the rest of the year positive? Interestingly, since 2010, there have been 4 occasions where Sept. had positive returns. After that, 3/4 had positive returns in October. All 4/4 had positive returns in November and 3/4 had positive returns in December. So on net, seasonally, it hasn't paid to be short #Bitcoin in Q4.

$BTC has some poor market structure in the 28970-29100 area from the previous selloff that is likely to be retested. Any shorts still holding will have seen their profits evaporate and will likely throw in the towel at this point. #BTC #trading

gm Here's today's PSA. Markets don't bottom on Fridays.

We're in the midst of a min peak-to-trough 10%+ correction in equities. 📈📉 $VIX 19.55 is a forgone conclusion. Watch and see if we get into the 21-22 area. $SPY left a lot of poor market structure behind on it's run from 415-459. $SPY 422 is high probability pivot followed by 420. #trading

This is how I would draw the current BF playing out on $VIX. There will be time to fade vol - just wait for some vol sellers to be put on stretchers first.

gm Here's today's PSA. Risk off continues - $JNK and $HYG have both gone outside-inside month and down. This has been on the radar for some time and is now confirmed. Act accordingly.

Houston

$JNK $HYG update

You need to be paying attention to $JNK and $HYG to understand how the markets are pricing risk. 

They are both...

Hold on to your top hats, things are about to get bumpy. $VIX range expansion underway.