By now, most of you have probably seen a chart similar to this one, which shows that September is historically a seasonally weak month for $BTC. An interesting follow-up question is what does history have to say about months where September was actually positive? Was the following month and the rest of the year positive? Interestingly, since 2010, there have been 4 occasions where Sept. had positive returns. After that, 3/4 had positive returns in October. All 4/4 had positive returns in November and 3/4 had positive returns in December. So on net, seasonally, it hasn't paid to be short #Bitcoin in Q4.

$BTC has some poor market structure in the 28970-29100 area from the previous selloff that is likely to be retested. Any shorts still holding will have seen their profits evaporate and will likely throw in the towel at this point. #BTC #trading

gm Here's today's PSA. Markets don't bottom on Fridays.

We're in the midst of a min peak-to-trough 10%+ correction in equities. 📈📉 $VIX 19.55 is a forgone conclusion. Watch and see if we get into the 21-22 area. $SPY left a lot of poor market structure behind on it's run from 415-459. $SPY 422 is high probability pivot followed by 420. #trading

This is how I would draw the current BF playing out on $VIX. There will be time to fade vol - just wait for some vol sellers to be put on stretchers first.

gm Here's today's PSA. Risk off continues - $JNK and $HYG have both gone outside-inside month and down. This has been on the radar for some time and is now confirmed. Act accordingly.

Houston

$JNK $HYG update

You need to be paying attention to $JNK and $HYG to understand how the markets are pricing risk. 

They are both...

Hold on to your top hats, things are about to get bumpy. $VIX range expansion underway.

Watch out - USDJPY heading for multi-year highs. Remember that of all the G10 nations, Japan is furthest along the path of monetary experimentation. Daily - 3 x outside-inside and break to the upside. The triple outside bar is noteworthy as we can now certainly expect a range extension. Weekly - The weekly chart shows a continuation of the momo up condition. We will see how long this condition will last. Putting this out there as a possibility - but a re-test of the 200 pivot is a long term possibility and would likely be the result of a very large macro event.

GM Repeat after me - "Markets don't bottom on Fridays".

$JNK $HYG update You need to be paying attention to $JNK and $HYG to understand how the markets are pricing risk. They are both closing in on going outside month and down. 🔻 There are still 8 days remaining in the month and quarter. Will we trigger before the end of the month and quarter? Keep watching carefully. 👀 https://iris.to/note1xtmcxqs0h0psjccnxfak9ecl2pl57p9tya2875qrnjqk7s6c5stsgz4jnc

$TLT - long bond update. $TLT broke below last year's lows. Wild to see $TLT retrace all the way back to 2006 levels. ______ I posted the following over a month ago: https://iris.to/note1pn500p47g69779zzd8pg6uk64hn70s2dnlhtzmnwg88dkj9ur27stafx5a

Breakout. The US 2 year yield is trading at 5.12. Highest levels since 2006.

Kaching - thanks for playing. 🎰💸 Taking some profits here on the $ETHBTC trade before FOMC this afternoon. There's more downside possible but taking some chips off the table. #trading #btc #eth

$ETHBTC update. The long $BTC, short $ETH trade continues to play out. 💸 https://iris.to/note1gwqn2qc5tkl7v50wmw7ej6v6tlwj9crzw8uhlh95ntjl6prxxp4q4y9v0m

Markets always move slower than you want, but faster than you expect.

Top of the morning. ☕ 1370 here we come. Currently short a bunch of shitcoins and waiting to see how the market reacts to the macro news on Wednesday and Thursday as well as the potential supply coming from FTX.

Pay attention. The USDJPY and USDCNH are on the verge of new cycle highs. Say hello to the USD wrecking ball. 💣

Not enough people are talking about it. The high-yield bond ETFs $JNK and $HYG are both trading outside-inside on the monthly chart and consolidating at the precipice. If we see a break of last month's outside bar to the downside, watch out. 👀 This means that the market is expecting more defaults or lower recoveries from junk bonds, which could be caused by factors such as higher interest rates, a worsening economy, lower earnings, or more volatility, and drive investors into safer risk assets. 📈📉