Houston's avatar
Houston
houston@nostrplebs.com
npub1z9rv...jj33
Ex-TradFi trader. Master of crayons. πŸ–οΈ In the game of trading crypto for more Bitcoin. πŸ’Έ Writing about what I observe, think and trade. πŸ”­
Houston's avatar
Houston 2 years ago
Alright $VIX reclaimed the 15.45 level. Now watch to see if we reclaim the 17.30 pivots. image
Houston's avatar
Houston 2 years ago
A truly fascinating sequence of price action is unfolding. On the daily chart we are trading within the range defined by the big down bar that was formed on August 17th. image To the layman's eye, it looks like we are just chopping around, but we are actually trading at an inflection point that is precipitating a big price move. One way the chop is expressed in the price action is as a series of widening formations with higher highs and lower lows, which is kryptonite for traders using horizontal levels or previous pivots for stop losses. image What usually precedes big moves are choppy periods that chop up the majority of traders who are jockeying for the next move but eventually capitulate before the big move happens. Once the move is finally underway, those left behind are forced to chase the price or fear missing out on the price action they so desperately wanted to be ahead of. Finally, take a look at the 1628 pivot. Notice how we've been chopping around this level? Zoom out to the 3M chart and you can see that 1628 is the reversal pivot on the quarterly chart - which has become a battleground for buyers and sellers. When the 1628 pivot gives way, we should see much lower prices. image The major timeframes are all trading πŸ”΄ so my expectation is that this period of consolidation will eventually resolve to the downside and we visit the 1370 pivot as I have noted previously on my feed. image $BTC is trading in a very similar structure to $ETH, so I expect both $BTC and $ETH to resolve the consolidation in a similar manner. #BTC #ETH #trading #plebchain
Houston's avatar
Houston 2 years ago
The $VIX is setting up for a snapback rally and could be setting the stage for a volatile September. #trading #plebchain image
Houston's avatar
Houston 2 years ago
If the US 10 YY breaks over yesterday's high then the 4.206 is the next likely pivot in play. Pay attention to what this could mean for the broader market if the market follows this pivot.
Houston's avatar
Houston 2 years ago
All eyes on the #jobs report tomorrow. πŸ‘€ The US 2 and 10-year yields have retraced their recent upward thrust and this could be the moment buyers step back in. If the jobs report comes in strong, we could see yields push back up. #economy #trading #plebchain image
Houston's avatar
Houston 2 years ago
Call it a slow-motion rug pull. πŸ¦₯🐌 Over 170 years ago in January of 1862, United States representative from Ohio, George Pendleton, took the floor and declared that if the members of Congress were to disengage money’s material moorings in gold and silver, they would - image From "The Money Plot" by F. Kaufman (2020)
Houston's avatar
Houston 2 years ago
I’m about half way through The Money Plot from F. Kaufman. So far it’s been pretty wide recounting of the history and use case of money and has some novel stories I haven’t read elsewhere. I will post a thorough review when I’m done. image
Houston's avatar
Houston 2 years ago
Want to see something cool? πŸ‘€ So where did today's big spike in $BTC take us? The price went right up to and tested the lower BF trendline that I posted back on August 16th. One of the most flawed mental models is that price trades in horizontal support/resistance levels. The markets are always looking for liquidity, which is why you will ALWAYS see higher highs and lower lows. #bitcoin #BTC #trading #plebchain
Houston's avatar
Houston 2 years ago
Always some poor soul buying the breakout at the local top. πŸ˜“ #BTC #trading #plebchain image
Houston's avatar
Houston 2 years ago
I was wondering how the FOMO Momo up condition on the US 10YY would be extinguished. This is how FOMO rallies end. Now i'm watching to see how the US 2 and 10 close out month and set up into September. image
Houston's avatar
Houston 2 years ago
I'm seeing a lot of FOMO across markets - we're setting up for some late longs to get washed out. 🌊🚽
Houston's avatar
Houston 2 years ago
$ETHBTC update We have ourselves a decent BF playing out and have a clear target near the bottom trendline. Remember that price drives narratives, so as the price action unfolds, watch for the narratives that get concocted along the way. image
Houston's avatar
Houston 2 years ago
Don't be fooled into chasing the price here. A lot of poor market structure is being left behind, so we are likely to retest the breakout area for liquidity.
Houston's avatar
Houston 2 years ago
Repeat after me - "Markets don't bottom on Fridays".
↑