Repeat after me - "Markets don't bottom on Fridays".

US 2-year yields about to make new cycle highs. Here comes the US dollar wrecking ball. 💣

Here's one of my all-time favorite trading quotes from a not-so-well-known book called Phantom of the Pits. "The correct way to control positions is to only hold them once they prove to be correct. Let the market tell you your position is proven correct, but never let the market tell you that your position is wrong. You, as a good trader, must always be in command of knowing and telling yourself when your position is bad."

I hope you had the chance to smash buy some $BTC. $BTC gave the "second mouse gets the cheese" entry. 25800 was yesterday's daily reversal pivot on Binance and we retested that level to the tick this morning. The Fed is holed up in Jackson Hole and while it has often been a nothing burger in summer's past, all media journalists are waiting with bated breath for Powell to put the proverbial foot in his mouth so be on the lookout for that possibility. #BTC #trading Here's my current book -

I took profits on all my shorts and started nibbling away at the longs. 💰 We had the proverbial flush then vacuum followed by buyers stepping in. If you've been following along then you know that I've been short from much higher levels and in the short to medium term I think the better R:R skews to the upside. My younger trading self would often be greedy or fearful to exit winning positions, but years of repetition have made me comfortable with tactical exits because I know my method will allow me to get back into the trade should price action continue to trend. #BTC #trading

$ETH update - The BF posted earlier on $ETH is still unfolding, which brings the 1400 area into play. https://iris.to/note1qk39cxyjthv3uzh9x7wn5ekp5xn47xhfhlj40aqufaqtyu5xyx2s5sumdy #ETH #trading

Smoked chicken wings with salsa verde. 😋

Still net short and waiting for breadth to get extended before I cover.

$CRV is not out of the woods yet. Inside week and down continuation and 3M inside bar and down. 0.40 was the OTC price at which Michael was able to unload his tokens to improve his liquidation health. But it looks like people are now gunning for $0.40 - if we crack 0.40 how long will that gentlemen's agreement hold?

Playing with #Nunchuk. I never knew that multi-sig could be so easy. Thanks @BTC Sessions for the tutorials. 🫡

2 charts I'm watching closely - US10Y Yields on the US 10-year is getting awfully close to new cycle highs. 💣 USDJPY Japan is the furthest along amongst G nations in its experiments with monetary policy. Now the Yen is heading back towards cycle lows - watch carefully to see how Japan reacts. 👀

Kaching - As the saying goes, sometimes all you have to do is wait until all the chips are on one side of the table. 💰

This doesn't portend well. Long bond - $TLT - Weekly inside bar and down. The downtrend accelerated with the double inside quarter and down. We are likely to visit the recent lows and lower and see some price discovery. Zooming all the way out and $TLT is still trading year so it will be interesting to watch if it remains in last year's range or not.

Kaching - as posted earlier we now have higher highs and lower lows. https://iris.to/note1ljxjvns93et4ufnvzj5vj0wge9q27596ep9g2leuvmeghvttnugshazu26💸

The game gets easier once you understand broadening formations exist. Then it gets down to execution.

ETHBTC - weekly inside bar reversal slowly playing out which puts the 0.06108 pivot in play. Monthly outside -inside break setting up which would put the larger broadening formation in play. Personally, i wouldn't be surprised if we drift sideways until the new quarter and we see vol return in the Fall. I'm currently in the BTC/ETH pairs trade - long BTC and short ETH via perp futures. Structuring it this way allows you often collect funding from one side of the trade to offset the carry cost while waiting for the directional move.

Back to posting charts on nostr! $BTC update We got the 3-month reversal - momo-up reversal - which now puts the 24825 pivot in play. The multiple outside bars have caught a lot of traders offside. This is when zooming out to a higher timeframe helps see the forest through the trees. On the 12-month - $BTC is clearly trading inside year and it's very unlikely we break that range. Tactically, this still means that on a risk-adjusted basis, it's still best to sell rips and buy dips. If you're a longer-term trader/investor then keep some gun powder dry, don't chase as you will have opportunities to buy $BTC at cheaper prices.

Bad news: my buyer bailed on me for my #Bitcoin 2023 GA ticket. Good news: I'm paying it forward by giving it away for free! If you're interested in a GA ticket for #Bitcoin2023 in Miami Beach FOLLOW and DM me for the next 4 hours and you'll be entered in a random draw. ⏰

Interestingly, gold seems to be leading $BTC. This will be something worth watching moving forward. Gold triggered the daily inside down bar before the reversal in $BTC. 60m - Outside-Inside-Inside sequence triggered the break to the downside.

$BTC update 5 trading days remain in March and Q1 and I think the most likely scenario is we see some end-of-quarter selling and end the week red. Next week I will be very interested to see how the price trades in relation to the weekly open AND the monthly/quarterly open. The beginning of each quarter is one of the most opportune times for buyers/sellers to take control and align across all time frames. Daily - $BTC inside bar reversal to the downside. $BTC had been bouncing off the upper BF trendline but now trading below the trendline - watch to see if the trendline is reclaimed. 2 Day - $BTC outside inside and down.