Still net short and waiting for breadth to get extended before I cover.

$CRV is not out of the woods yet. Inside week and down continuation and 3M inside bar and down. 0.40 was the OTC price at which Michael was able to unload his tokens to improve his liquidation health. But it looks like people are now gunning for $0.40 - if we crack 0.40 how long will that gentlemen's agreement hold?

Playing with #Nunchuk. I never knew that multi-sig could be so easy. Thanks @BTC Sessions for the tutorials. 🫡

2 charts I'm watching closely - US10Y Yields on the US 10-year is getting awfully close to new cycle highs. 💣 USDJPY Japan is the furthest along amongst G nations in its experiments with monetary policy. Now the Yen is heading back towards cycle lows - watch carefully to see how Japan reacts. 👀

Nailed the call on $ETHBTC - price target and timing. 🎯 As posted several days ago - https://iris.to/note12u5jgu25znclny8m2g5kyq74h5vzqwa5j6yukukcz49mvadla9fsuty0nq

$BTC update - As noted with the monthly reversal in force June's lows were in play (24825) and we got as low 24713. The next major pivot is 19592 which i think is a possibility but not likely in a straight line. In the meantime, I will be looking for some short-term dip-buying opportunities should they appear but will be quick to get short should the recent lows not hold. https://iris.to/note12yzltal3yr0eegtxrlkn4s563z4302phdpnqjc2u6stgh2fkslps5kj95j

$SAND update - As noted the the 0.3280 was in play, and I took some profits for at that pivot for +6R - now trailing a small portion. https://iris.to/note180djyzdgkstr9pzh83alsr72qyyn9tuqanftaqn4jynrh6y4jfcq8xhj9z

New cycle highs in US 10 year yields. Watch out, but the US dollar wrecking ball is coming back. 💣

So who have you guys got for this weekend's #UFC? 🤔

Keep watching that $ETHBTC 0.06108 pivot. 👀 https://iris.to/note12u5jgu25znclny8m2g5kyq74h5vzqwa5j6yukukcz49mvadla9fsuty0nq

So we're finally seeing the weak and late longs get the flush. Breadth is still not extreme, so while it's tempting to cover and start buying here, I want to stay short for a while. The character of the market has changed markedly and all the bounces have faded. In a bear market, we rarely see a Friday bounce as many market participants don't want to take any risk over the weekend. Often times the hardest thing to do in trading is to ride winners and do nothing. So the plan is to sit patiently and see how we close tomorrow.

Flush!

Every once in a while, you get a soft pitch where you have to swing hard, and $SAND was one of those where the fundamentals and the technicals lined up perfectly. 🎯 Fundamentals - 🛠️ It was well telegraphed that $SAND had a large token release scheduled for August 14th - 332.55 million tokens, or about 16% of the circulating float. Technicals - 🔭 Heading into the unlock, the monthly chart of $SAND was setting up as an outside-inside bar with the potential to break the inside condition to the downside. The weekly outside-inside pattern had already broken to the downside a few weeks earlier, putting the previous month's low pivot (0.3958) in play. Finally, by simply stalking the daily timeframe, there was plenty of time to watch and position for a potential short before the 14th unlock date. I got short on the inside bar break to the downside on the 10th. This setup was also more compelling as it was a "second mouse gets the cheese" setup where the 2nd price reversal is the higher probability setup. If you missed the 10th, you had another setup on the 12th that triggered on the 13th. Currently +4R and looking for the June lows of 0.3280 to be tested.

Here's the current book. Trimmed some profits and now trailing. Breadth measures are low but not yet extended so now waiting for some extreme readings and price to confirm before looking to accumulate.

Don't blink now but yields on US 10-year are about to make new cycle highs. Yields up, bond and equity prices down. 📈📉 Keep some gunpowder dry for lower prices. 🛒

Want to see something neat? How's the BF that I posted on the 11th playing out? https://iris.to/note12s4a49y9jwssztzqthrmtuzzkh7fjnmcdeaqzw9zuz2gum7egf4sammvmc And now: RIP to Rob Scott - a pioneer in popularizing broadening formations.

The so-called "retard phenomena" aka fiat mindset disease, has unfortunately permeated the minds of most of our society to the extent that it's been normalized. My optimistic side thinks that we have at most 1-2 more cycles of memecoin chasing before people finally get it. But my more cynical view is that there will always be a group of high time preference "suckers" who will be lured in by the next round of charlatans espousing the next snake oil.

You may be tempted to start dip buying, but the breadth metrics I'm tracking tell me we haven't washed out the weak longs yet, which tells me we still have a flush coming. We have the FOMC minutes this afternoon at 2pm EST which is usually a nothing burger but it will be interesting to see how jumpy the markets are around the release. 📉

Kaching - As the saying goes, sometimes all you have to do is wait until all the chips are on one side of the table. 💰

This doesn't portend well. Long bond - $TLT - Weekly inside bar and down. The downtrend accelerated with the double inside quarter and down. We are likely to visit the recent lows and lower and see some price discovery. Zooming all the way out and $TLT is still trading year so it will be interesting to watch if it remains in last year's range or not.