IMO your #2 incentives based system will happen inevitably. Like a new free banking system based on BTC. Some will be good, some will take too much risk, some will be crooks. If there are enough options then the good win out overall and the overextended/crooks fail often and early enough for the system to remain healthy on the whole

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I somewhat agree: "trust somebody" can be quite efficient. But it's prone to bad incentives (undeclared fractional reserve) which can drive out good actors (who are not as profitable) *then* collapse. I know @calle has thought about this a fair bit, and has a rotating ecash solution which may address it well enough?