Many Bitcoin OGs may not be selling out of fear or profit-taking, but for strategic reasons. If a fork occurs, they could position themselves on the chain they believe is correct and strengthen it economically.
The noticeable increase in OG selling began around the same time Bitcoin Core introduced its controversial change. Many long-time Bitcoiners seem to disagree with the direction Core is taking.
Which chain prevails is ultimately not determined by miner signaling or online debate, but by which chain is economically more attractive. The chain with the higher Bitcoin price and higher fees attracts pools, and miners always follow wherever the economic return is greatest. If they don’t, the hashrate will simply flow to the pools offering better economic incentives.
The theory, is that some OGs are selling now in order to build large positions on the alternative chain in the event of a split. By buying there and paying fees, they increase the economic pressure on that chain and draw miners toward it. In this way, OGs could indirectly influence which chain wins in the long run by directing their capital toward the version of Bitcoin that aligns with their vision and protects their wealth more effectively.
Now we just need to identify the rule set that maximizes Bitcoin’s decentralization and economic robustness, informed by the new insights we’ve gained from recent spam dynamics.
And then develop it..