Ask that to someone who cashed out gold down 65% nominal in 1999 after believing people like you in 1980, when inflation had been high and the dollar had been falling right up to the peak

Replies (3)

Mountain Man's avatar
Mountain Man 3 months ago
You're right to bring up the 1980s, but the context is key. Gold's price ran up hard to 1980 because of massive inflation in the 70s. The crash then happened because the Fed successfully fought inflation by raising rates to over 20%, which made the dollar stronger and killed the need for an inflation hedge. Today, we're in a very different environment. Central banks are not aggressively fighting inflation, and the market knows that rates are about to come down again, even with the stock market and gold at all-time highs and inflation above target, and an out-of-control national debt. The rise in gold isn't based on a speculative chase; it's a direct response to a loss of confidence in the underlying currency. A bubble is when prices rise detached from fundamentals. But in this case, the fundamentals—money printing and fiscal irresponsibility—are what's driving the price. This isn't a bubble; it's a revaluation of gold to account for the depreciation of the dollar.
Owner_of_donky's avatar
Owner_of_donky 3 months ago
Ask someone who has chashed out Bitcoin down 75% nominal in 2022 after believing people like you in 2021...
Gold is used as the most stable reference point due to it's direct correlation with the energy and labour cost of mining and extraction it. Is demand high, more mining will happen. Is demand/price low mining is not feasible. Secondly gold has always been a valued commodity all around the world. So, believing printed paper by an obscure private entity, unlimited, is a more stable reference point than gold is stupidity.