Well put. If the US will move first on Bitcoin, the probability of your scenario increases. If another large state moves first, competition will maintain decentralization and keep people’s escape options open, imo. And then, if the Bitcoin attributes survive, Bitcoin will ultimately lead to abundance.
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Bitcoiners see decentralisation too statically.
Like, we achieved it, so it’s locked in.
The scenario I laid out shows it’s not locked in and that decentralisation could easily give way to centralisation pressures.
We won’t have key-holding noderunners in jurisdictions who have declared war on Bitcoin and demand it transfers to the nation states balance sheet to compete with the US SBR.
That opens Bitcoin up to major attacks from large US holders who will align with the Gov on forks.