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Bitcoin treasury companies (or LBE’s — Leveraged Bitcoin Equities) like Strategy, Metaplanet, and Semler are difficult to value. Each has its own unique attributes. All, except for the recent 21 Capital ($CEP/$XXI), have existing operating businesses, which makes valuation a bit trickier. So how do you figure out which one offers the best bang for your buck? The easiest metric is the mNAV — the multiple of its Bitcoin holdings. You can mean-revert in and out of these if you want to reallocate between them, and it could be a way to outperform simply buying and holding one company. Rotating out of the high mNAV companies and into lower mNAV companies could be a strategy. Here are some very basic mNAV numbers for $MSTR, $SMLR, $MTPLF / $3350, $KULR, and $CEP / $XXI, calculated from recent data (some of these have been much higher on the richer side in the past). It’s still early in the mNAV journey. 21 Capital literally just launched last week, so these numbers will change — but it could become an interesting portfolio reallocation method for those into $BTC and Bitcoin proxies. What do you think? #gm #bitcoin #mstr #smlr #mtplf #3350 #cep #xxi #kulr #plebchain #asknostr #btc #stocks image
2025-04-27 15:46:59 from 1 relay(s) 4 replies ↓
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If I understand your question correctly, you want to know why buy these Bitcoin proxies vs Bitcoin itself? If so, it depends on the person. It makes a lot of sense for people with assets in retirement accounts where they can easily invest in Bitcoin proxies as well as Bitcoin ETF’s. Most Bitcoin treasury companies are essentially leveraged Bitcoin plays. Usually performance is somewhere between 1.5-2x spot Bitcoin. So for people that want more performance from Bitcoin and are ok with the additional risk a company inherently has, it might make sense for them. Some brokerages or retirement/401K accounts still don’t even let you buy Bitcoin ETF’s so these companies are a way around that. It’s definitely not for everyone.
2025-04-27 17:53:56 from 1 relay(s) ↑ Parent Reply
That was indeed my question. I can't control how my pension, government scheme, is invested, so that is for us not an option unfortunately. If one wants to leverage you could short or go long #Bitcoin. So in that regard I was wondering why a private person would invest via Bitcoin proxies... For me owning #Bitcoin myself is the only thing that makes sense. For companies this is a completely different matter..
2025-04-27 19:34:45 from 1 relay(s) ↑ Parent 1 replies ↓ Reply
Yea that’s perfectly fine to just own bitcoin itself, it’s ideal. Keep doing that. Bitcoin proxies make sense for others. Not sure where you’re located but hopefully there is some sort of Roth IRA equivalent you can use. I definitely take advantage of a Roth because come retirement I can withdrawal tax free. It’s a big benefit, especially for assets with a lot of growth. Shorting or going long isn’t exactly leverage unless you’re doing it with margin on an exchange. Bitcoin proxies provide leverage because they trade at a multiple and also are able to use low interest debt to buy more and use operating cash flows to pay for most of the interest. But if you’re comfortable with just the bitcoin itself, just keep doing that! You don’t have to use different tools like Bitcoin proxies, options, futures, etc. Simplicity can be the winner long run.
2025-04-27 22:57:31 from 1 relay(s) ↑ Parent Reply
mNAV justified by accretive dilution on the stock to acquire bitcoin - is quite different from mNAV justified by access to issue debt to acquire Bitcoin. Both increase btc/share. The first is ephemeral and better the smaller the current bitcoin treasury, The second is enduring and advantaged in certain ways by large size. The first will rotate with sentiment to newer and smaller LBE’s, The second will endure for as long as the CAGR of bitcoin is higher than the CAGR of the cost of debt. #mstr
2025-06-10 17:08:16 from 1 relay(s) ↑ Parent 1 replies ↓ Reply
Thanks for the reply. Good points. Valuation is in the eye of the beholder/investor. The value investor will see opportunity on the lower mNAV. The growth investor will see opportunity in the higher mNAV which generates a higher BTC yield. Most mNAV calculations are simplified and don’t take debt or cash into account (effectively EV - enterprise value). Investing in LBE’s is a really interesting exercise.
2025-06-10 17:34:27 from 1 relay(s) ↑ Parent Reply