Well, marketing is obviously a problem, if not for the fact that 'marketing' a protocol is a pointless endevour. The only users of protocol are developers; the rest of the people use apps.
But its not just that, its also trying to communicate a new paradigm. Now it is better to show rather than tell; most people cant do much with abstract notions, they dont translate to insight for them. Yet, i do still see merit in 'propagating' the paradigm message under the Nostr banner, it has its use.
As to 'market-product-fit', let a 1000 flowers bloom; Nostr can actually do this, the variety of clients in existence today proofs that. What will actually hit the mark, i don't know. But i trust that:
1: different developers are looking at building vastly different things.
2: that atleast one of them will get some meaningfull traction at some point.
Luckely its innitial fit with Bitcoiners resulted in a good bootstrap.
What is most important I think, is that the moment something really becomes succesfull, the ecosystem as a whole should be able to latch on; the paradigm shift will become more obvious to more people, and things can snowball in a broad manner, not just one particular vertical.
Untill such time, the ecosystem seems to simply prepare itself better every day to grasp the opportunity when it arives.
Which leads us to the final question; can we hold out long enough? In that regard i think we can. You can argue that things are being propped up by dorseymoney TM, which I wont discount. But in the grand scheme of things, it is not a lot of money actually, especially if you look at the sums of money thrown around elsewhere in the world. And that money is not driving force behind Nostr, in my experience people are very inspired and motivated; it will take a lot before they abandon Nostr.
If i look at the caliber of people that 'get it', i am almost tempted to think it is a matter of time.
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I agree with most of this, but an important x factor is none of this is happening in isolation.
On the atproto side the variety of clients is getting up there. It’s probably fair to say there’s now similar client variety on atproto as on nostr, plus there are some 'other stuff' clients there of a type nostr doesn’t have yet. There are just a lot of independent atproto devs right now, really buzzing, and night and day from last year. And there’s more funding.
Also the cost to spin up an atproto full network relay is now down to around $30 per month. A full network relay is everything, every post, every reply, every reaction, from everyone, peaking at 2k events a second, and can be seen in the same terms as Primal’s cache relay. These relays are popping up around the world (blog linked below), and anyone can spin one up.
There’s also been key movement on the identity side in recent months, which is a lot to sum up but TLDR things are getting more sovereign and not less over there.
Basically atproto is becoming a little more nostr-like each month. Will that continue? Who knows. But if so it might mean nostr ought to focus more on what sets nostr apart regardless of how many steps atproto can shuffle in nostr's direction.
Then you’ve got pubky with some good ideas like PKDNS, and legit claims to censorship resistance untied to DNS concerns. And Holepunch is doing it's thing. (But it’s really atproto that is not to be slept on.)
I do think though that when you look at atproto and nostr there are some clear things that set nostr apart. It's just that the focus is perhaps less on those things right now. If more focus goes there I think nostr has quite a good chance still.
&handle=@bnewbold.net&avatar=https://cdn.bsky.app/img/avatar/plain/did:plc:44ybard66vv44zksje25o7dz/bafkreiglnysron3h2je7nf6cmvtimuaxi7xe2c7rkxitmks3mzmajnc2ou@jpeg)
A Full-Network Relay for $34 a Month | bryan newbold (✈️ vacation/travel through mid-Jan)
This is an update to a Summer 2024 blog post. At the time, atproto relays required a cache of the full network on local disk to validate data struc...
In terms of protocols i am a grumpy tired old man, that leverages his heuristics to know Nostr is 'the way'. It may have many tiny flaws but i also recon those dont matter in the grand scheme of things. I simply can't be bothered anymore to look at other stuff.
Now i am aware that history shows the 'best' thing has no guarentees on winning. Many stupid things won out for stupid reasons.
I did listen to this talk with the bluesky CTO, and around 20 minutes in it is about ID's. All the sudden, the talk is not so smooth anymore, picking his words more carefull, and things are framed more in terms of desires and promisses for the future than current fact. Smh.
Its all so tiresome..
:)

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