I think we're quickly going to move toward a mesh of FOSS mobile devices that relay and use I2P / Reticulum or some such. I think marketplaces is the killer Nostr app; not twitteresque clique circlejerk.
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In my definition you have a different assumption on the first item - I don’t believe in the foreseeable future there will be a mesh of foss mobile devices that will be used as a social network in todays terms i.e hundreds of millions of users. I could believe this could be true for tens of thousands though. In this case nostr will be completely different product compared to how I see it now and how others see it now.
If you believe this network to onboard hundreds of millions of users, I would be cery gld to appear wrong