If a fork does happen, coins can be split by including >83byte OP_RETURNs in transactions.
Which would in turn create fee pressure and thus incentive for miners to mine the non-UASF chain.
To be clear…
Assuming Bitcoin Knots indeed adopts this BIP444 soft fork, there will be a chain split (airdrop coins) if:
- The Knots UASF attracts a minority of the hash rate (but enough to mine at least some blocks)
and/or
- There is a URSF (user rejected soft fork) to counter it
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