Short term I see a whole lot more pain.
Take your average western country; the economy is 30-55% the government. 15-30% of people are employed by governments of various levels.
If you pull the rug on that with a Sovereign debt bubble, a lot of people with ZERO free-market transferable skills are now competing with grafters who will do anything for a dollar. That’s Mandibles stuff.
What is the Government funded 55-yo Keynesian economist going to do? What’s the 45-yo climate change scientists living off research grants going to do? What’s the 35-yo DMV worker who never had a real job going to do?
Saif’s prediction is more bleak than mine. I’d go Venetian renaissance for a Bitcoin-led era. Both were merchant led aristocracys but Venice lasted a good 400 years and wasn’t humiliatingly crushed like the frogs were after 40 years of good living.
The Sovereign Individual is a great book but it paints a future, not a path to get there.
I’m interested in the path. The path is where we are; we won’t get to bask in the glory, we’ve got to get our kids there and make sure they can hold on for more than 2 generations!
Login to reply
Replies (1)
I'm more optimistic - Sure, a lot of people will lose their jobs in the state sector, but frankly they were not producing anything valuable anyway, so their continued employment was basically malinvestment
I think the quality of the human capital in statist activities is not as bad a as you make it out to be either - E.G a Keynesian economist regardless of his other failings is not stupid. Most climate activists went to university and so on. Most of them can adapt to doing something useful with their lives for once. 😏
Freeing all the resources that are wasted in negative value added government jobs today will unleash a boom in the actually productive economy. This will go some way to cushioning the impact on society in the short term, and long term it's of course just better.