My thinking is if the US goes first, by the time Western allies work out the game they’re in they will be too late.
They will go hunt down HODLers using exchange KYC lists and shake them down hard which is going to hurt Bitcoin’s decentralisation:
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“Hunting down hodlers” comes at a cost. That’s the beauty of NGU … it imposes efficiency on every entity. If the United States government legitimizes bitcoin and then it goes to $1M/btc … the people who they’d hire to run all the processes would want to get paid in bitcoin, not the USD. And the existing laws on the books would mean lengthy court battles, etc.
These agencies wouldn’t be able to afford to chase after individuals because they’d be spending resources they don’t have. They’re better served by promoting bitcoin and getting the benefit of the NGU on their stack.