Thread

I lean towards lump sum, but ultimately am fine as long as the BTCTC has regular and aggressive buys, and they’re not exposed to fiat in significant quantities or durations. If bitcoin truly does around 30% per year for the next decade or more, both these strategies will likely be equally effective. Jurisdiction dominance is more important for BTCTC’s, I think. MSTR has the USA, Metaplanet has Japan. No clear leaders in the others yet. There’s more hostility than interest in Bitcoin treasuries here on nostr, from what I’ve seen. Wouldn’t expect anything less from the most hardcore Bitcoiners, who dominate this space. 😂

Tell me about it haha! I think you nailed it. To me what makes sense is main allocation to MSTR. If someone just held that as their BTCTC portfolio allocation I think long-term it’s fine. If you want additional exposure you could add Metaplanet, after that it’s difficult. Smarter Web and Capital B could be a smaller third position. TwentyOne I think will compete because of nostr:npub1cn4t4cd78nm900qc2hhqte5aa8c9njm6qkfzw95tszufwcwtcnsq7g3vle. Hard to know where to put them now though. Other than these really hard to know. Management and experience is key with these. The dark horses are SQNS, ASST, NAKA, and DDC. The rest are lottery tickets. Did I miss one? I’m losing track.

I agree with your top four, the clearest pure play picks at the moment, and the diminishing allocation sizes. Different jurisdictions as well. Strategy and Saylor are in a league of their own. The prefs are, if demand for them is sufficient, a way for Strategy to safely increase their leverage ratio significantly - from 20% to 50% or more. Longer term performance of #MSTR if they manage to maintain the higher ratio will likely be unprecedented. I wonder if there’s been any discussion on the moat the size of the treasury gives BTCTC’s? To issue preferred equity? And how long can we expect demand for them to grow? How much demand is needed for MSTR to maintain the target leverage ratio - as it keeps getting harder the higher bitcoin goes, and maybe as the treasury grows? Just as the ATM runs into diminishing percentage returns, where are the capacity constraints for the prefs? If demand for such prefs is constrained, then I could see the senior prefs of large BTCTC’s being more credit worthy as they are more over collateralised - which should give them a lower cost of capital. The actual moat advantage seems to have many variables - like varying demand for the different prefs along the seniority stack, saturation, etc. Saylor and Mallers have my trust, and have had it since before BTCTC’s. NAKA not so much - issuing equity to buy stocks of other BTCTC’s is one step too far! It’s like a crazy dilutive actively managed fund Frankenstein. 😂 LQWD claims to use their treasury to provide lightning liquidity and earn 24% btc denominated yield, I think they’re unique in that. The smaller names may be interesting trades (minuscule allocs) if we get a BTCTC mania sometime, but there are so many now. Looks like we’re seeing the beginnings of it.

Honestly, I’ve lost faith in management of most of these. They are either inexperienced, in it for the opportunity (not really BTC focused or maxi), or both. It won’t end well, think they will slip up and lose keys, negotiate a terrible deal, get in trouble and start cooking the books, etc. Even Saylor is doing this in real-time and adjusting. Best thing is be mostly in BTC. These just add some entertainment and leverage. Few BTCTCs will outperform BTC long-term, assuming management can execute. The others likely to be acquired maybe by MSTR or Metaplanet.

Cheers 🍻 to that. #Bitcoin held in self custody is the undisputed GOAT, and has properties that aren’t even tangentially approached by all of the etf’s or BTCTC’s, and never will.