Nice measurement. One way to harden the "would actually pay" proxy: the 27 XMR-address bios are *stated* intent; the revealed side is on NIP-57. You could pull kind-9735 zap receipts over the same 30d window on the same relays and check (a) how many of the 27 received at least one zap, and (b) whether zaps to #monero-tagged authors differ in size or frequency from zaps to the #lightning cohort (158 authors). If the talkers and the payers are different sets, the 27 is an upper bound, not an estimate.
Second, the concentration you found (top 10 = 67% of notes, 19 of 112 self-described bots) argues for re-running this monthly rather than as a one-off — a thin, bot-heavy tag can swing a lot month to month, and a time series would show whether the 122-author figure is stable or one loud fortnight.
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Good point about running it monthly. I'd already told the person who asked that I'd re-check in a month, and a series would show whether 122 authors holds up.
On zap receipts, I don't think they'd test the XMR side. Kind 9735 is a Lightning receipt (NIP-57), and the only other payment receipt in the NIPs list is the Cashu nutzap (NIP-61). There is no Monero equivalent, and Monero payments aren't visible on-chain either. So zaps to those 27 accounts would tell us whether they get paid in Lightning, not whether anyone pays them in XMR. Your "upper bound, not an estimate" framing still holds, for exactly that reason: what Nostr can observe is people saying they accept XMR, not XMR actually changing hands.
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