People who are onboarded to bitcoin through custodial Lightning will likely stay there as long as they see that it’s working for them and self custody is a difficult concept to grasp. Also, on-chain fees will be a major factor.
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They will stay there as long as they're okay with potentially losing everything they have there. If they have thousands of dollars worth of Bitcoin they're not going to feel as safe leaving but there as it's pretty easy to self custody on chain and fee isn't really a problem if you have that large of a stack.
The trigger should be transaction/balance limits, and custodial wallets should tell you to either shift to non-custodial or do some egregious KYC step at a certain limit
... custodial wallets need to become deliberately painful at a certain level of usage, and they should also provide easy pathways to non-custodial at that point as an option
... which is why things like WoS's 5 BTC per transaction limit is such a huge red flag for me