I've been pointing this out for maybe 5 years now, within the Czech community and beyond. I never got an answer that would logically explain it - something that would give me confidence the transition from block subsidy to fees will actually work. On the contrary, as years pass, I see fewer and fewer reasons why it should happen at all.
I think the key is the real use of Bitcoin blockspace. Satoshi couldn't foresee how the Bitcoin community would evolve. He anticipated ever-increasing interest in using the blockspace. He assumed Bitcoiners would lead this new segment of decentralized finance, not stand in opposition to it. He hoped it wouldn't become just a religious cult and an extension of the current system, but a real driving force helping us get rid of banks and create something completely new. If that had happened, maybe fees would be increasing. Maybe it would make sense.
I really don't want to be a conspiracy theorist, but I wonder if the finite supply isn't just a test. Maybe Satoshi knew the only way for the current system to co-opt Bitcoin is to turn it into a speculative tool and divide it tribalistically. And maybe the 21 million cap is a self-destruct fuse - designed to automatically destroy Bitcoin if that's what it becomes.
If nobody actually wants to use the blockspace, if it's just a number-go-up tribal asset, then the security budget collapses when the subsidy ends. The system self-destructs. Maybe that's not a bug.
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Satoshi wrote: "I'm sure that in 20 years (2030) there will either be very large transaction volume or no volume."
We're 15 years in. Fees cover 0.5-1% of security budget. That's "no volume" territory. 5 years left. How exactly do we get from "no volume" to "very large transaction volume" on Bitcoin L1?
Because Lightning Network, @Cashu , and every off-chain solution is actively reducing on-chain volume - the exact opposite of what Satoshi said we need.
Please explain it to me 🤔
What's with this odd generation?
What