We're definitely going beyond $1M/BTC, for sure. I'm not so sure about $8M+. Some say $20M-40M, and I just can't quite see it. World wealth is at 900T, and if 10% of that flows into just 16MBTC (21M minus generous loss), that's $5.6M/BTC. Maybe Bitcoin makes the world way more prosperous, and then we're at $2000T world-wide, and Bitcoin becomes the dominant form of wealth storage: $2000T * 20% / 16MBTC = $25M/BTC in this unlikely scenario.

Replies (6)

The worlds wealth and the USD is growing exponentially though, the government will print again creating more and more “wealth” mostly for the 1% but it will take BTC with it IMO.
Well, I am thinking in terms of pre-pandemic dollars, so dollar-crashing is accounted. If we print $100T, I assume that all gets absorbed by Bitcoin. It would multiply the dollar-relative value. The wealth of the world may go up or down, depending on war and political moves. If a war breaks out between Russia and USA, the destruction of real wealth makes real resources more scarce and Bitcoin worth less per those resources, like food and shelter. If no war breaks out and resources boom, the relative price of those goods will go down, in bitcoin or in dollars. Simple supply and demand. Another trend you may not take into account is the very low birth rate of the US and European countries. This will make the 30s and 40s significantly less prosperous with a decline in work force. That current $900T total wealth storage value may actually go down, not up.
Humans will continue to survive and create more wealth over time. There is no "final value" of Bitcoin because it is the hardest currency for a young species on the cusp of expansion off their home planet.
Very true, but on what time scale? The black death wiped out a third of Europe, so the market was quite weak during that period. I'm saying now that we may have something of a similar sort happen to our time, a not-always-possitive trend. It'll recover, and I expect within my lifetime, but in the next few or several years? It remains to be seen, especially if we have nuclear war.