Aside from the metaphor making no sense, the goal of BIP-110 is a soft fork rather than a chain split / hard fork. Even if there is a chain split there won't be replay protection. Thus you're spewing nonsense.
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The comparison makes sense to me. I can be confident on something without putting money on the line, and nothing is 100% certain, that’s what I wanted to explain.
True, in an ideal “frictionless” situation bip-110 proposes a temporary softfork. But still, the money is already on the line, in the chain, and time will tell. Gambling does not show conviction or real intention. And opinions should not be discredited because there is no money behind them. (imo)