Well, you can say that, but what is your thesis behind that statement?
I can shortly re-iterate my reasoning, which is based on the fact that the (potential) UX is better (pick your app, pick your algo, not having to manage multiple accounts to access various silos of content, smoother paywalls). And that the horizontal network-effects throughout various social-graphs/usecases ultimately is more powerfull than the vertical social-graphs per use-case.
I.e. we are not competing head on, we are ultimately on a different plane all together.
(i did not mention timelines, i have no idea on the timelines. There are also various domains as wel as geographical and social groupings that may run on different timelines)
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The fact that only 0.1-1 % of humans are intetested in censorship-resistance and privacy at all is one reason.
The other is: the mainstream is fucking afraid of using 'keys'. They are not able to grasp that concept.
They can't handle self-hosted things and they don't want to. They lose their fucking passwords and need someone to recover passwords for them when they are lost.
BTW: The UX is ten times worse for normies. Try explaining to normie-internet-users that their data/posts are gone now cause a relay is offline and they should have run their own relays. Or that they can't use image-uploads cause someone needs to pay for the hosting. Or that half of the apps don't work very well and are only vibe-coded over one weekend and then abbandoned.
I spent a lot of time showing the Nostr protocoll and different nostr apps to people. They mostly don't like it. Bad UX.
Imo: Nostr is niche. And will always stay niche.