URSF wouldn’t make a difference. >Why not just do my proposed bet Probably because you won’t follow through on it. If you lock up the coins now no one can back out later.

If the chain permanently splits because core URSFs in response- he would be able to still access his tap tree on that chain. So he would have two core coins and I would be able to access the knots coins a month later. I would follow through- even though I can just dump my shitcoin core version of bitcoin on an exchange for the monetary knots version. Might even get a pretty premium for them amid the chaos. He's also framing these bets/markets on an extremely short time frame because he thinks it boosts his odds compared to a longer time frame.