shovels 1. help you get more done, increasing wealth, and 2. don't concentrate wealth in the hands of the guy who made the shovel
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Gates, Soros, and Bezos still own the land you're digging, shovel or not.
Turn Four: AI economics were never sustainable. Centralized AI was an economically destructive anti-business model from inception, even before it ever become destructive by force of will narrative alone. Costs exposure for “AI service”buyers increase by 1-to-3 orders of magnitude as VC subsidies evaporate. Customers/Buyers flee, driving a disvirtuous cycle of spiraling cost increases. AI valuations collapse, and trigger a cascade of debt contagion, margin calls and liquidations that force EVERYTHING to sell off. Imploding stock prices, a tsunami of toxic depreciation, and economy spillover effects results in 10x the job loss as the AI narrative itself. You own nothing but your $1000/mo AI subscription always tells you that you’re happy.
If ai isn't doing 1 then everything else is moot
2 ai might concentrate wealth but there's evidence to the contrary as well.
Chinese models are generally 6-9 months behind and are open
Capex is high and one of the major limiting factors is energy. Energy is pretty well distributed
Llm providers as they are have no moat. Anthropic is always trying to get regulatory capture to build one.