That is entirely possible. I would guess most new users won't stick around if all they see is spam.
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Be interesting to see if any of the nostr stats show a slow down because the deteriorated experience because all the spam. I wish we knew who it is behind it. I guess we are big enough to care about now.
It could because of a multitude of reasons, but my feed has been slower over the last few days and I'm getting less engagement on my notes. Maybe it's because I tweaked my relays, maybe everyone is busy and using Nostr less like I have been recently, or maybe it's spammers turning people off, or something else.