February PPI came in hot across the board. Headline PPI: 3.4% YoY vs 3.0% expected Core PPI: 3.9% YoY vs 3.7% expected Monthly PPI: 0.7% vs 0.3% expected 60% of the February surge came from a 5.5% jump in processed energy goods. This is the Hormuz disruption showing up in hard data for the first time. The timing matters. The Fed announces its rate decision today. Bond traders are already losing faith in any 2026 rate cut. EY's outlook now considers it "entirely plausible" the Fed delivers zero cuts this year. One economist at High Frequency Economics is calling for a rate hike. The Fed is trapped between an energy shock it can't control and inflation data that won't let it cut. The war premium is now baked into producer prices, and it's going to flow downstream into consumer prices within weeks.