That math assumes attention is spread evenly, but the larger the group, the more attention is concentrated and celebrity is the determining factor.
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I don't think it relies on that assumption... I'm assuming there's a power law, but the total amplitude is arbitrary depending on how popular your interest is.
Sure the level starts higher for "normie" interests -- food, sports, gardening, politics, Jaysus, etc -- i.e. the things people talk about on Nostr other than Bitcoin. It's the reason why when I talk about pinball or urbanism it gets zero engagement because those are relatively tiny communities and there's statistically "0" people here who care.
Having a more or less popular interest just moves the curve up or down, it doesn't change the nature of the argument.