I'm sensing a lack of confidence among bitcoiners recently. Arthur Hayes talked about Blackrock being in the ETF business for the benefit of the US gov't. On the other hand I never thought the $1 million predictions by 2026 by people such as Hayes, Jack Mallers, Samson Mow, Hodl etc are helpful at all, they will just disappoint people. We haven't even got to $75k yet never mind Hodl's previous bull run prediction of $300k a few years ago. Personally I'm skeptical of another retail led bull run. Most people are aware of bitcoin & they are either going to buy it because they believe it's worth holding or they won't touch it, the days of jumping in on an upward move are likely gone for most people too many have been burned (although they should have held on instead of selling at a loss). I agree with a lot of what Saylor says & it flies in the face of maxi's who used to tell us bitcoin will kill the banks. No, the banks will get involved in bitcoin if there's money to be made. Saylor is obviously very confident which helps me keep confident although as time goes by (been here over 7yrs) my confidence in bitcoin isn't what it was. Talk in the past of governments not being able to kill bitcoin seem a little fanciful now. I think the government's ability to crush anything it wants is more powerful than we like to believe. An inability to create a widespread use of bitcoin as a MoE coupled with a hostile government could be devastating to bitcoin.

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Here's an interview with Arthur Hayes yesterday in Coindesk talking about Blackrock ETF's you absolute genius. image
I think you underestimate how difficult it would be to kill bitcoin at this point. Nobody can take your properly secured self custodied bitcoin and there are too many people who plan to use it as money at this point. Sure there’s an unfortunate number of coins locked up in exchanges but there’s enough circulating in the wild to work out just fine. Suppose they try to take over mining and effectively censor transactions. The network can implement workarounds like swapping out SHA256 to brick the ASICs and reset hash rate until it can figure out a long term solution. It could even, and I hate writing this, make a PoS layer 2 as a temporary solution until mining can decentralize again so that the people who actually want bitcoin to thrive can transact again. Then suppose they make possession punishable by extreme measures. There are so many ways to embed Bitcoin transactions securely and covertly that it’s impossible to enforce. And on top of that, suppose your country does ban it. They have no control over the rest of the world who just might value a neutral reserve currency and continue to stack sats. Bitcoin was designed from the beginning to resist attack and while it may not be perfect there is no second best.
The scenario Saylor presented is unrealistic in my view because if everyone copied his behavior bitcoin would crush fiat through the speculative attack. Saif's take is unrealistic in the short term because people are not perfectly rational by default and will make mistakes for a long time before the usury dries up, but his theory is closer to reality in the long term (low time preference). If your confidence rests on other people rather than your own understanding you'll be on an emotional rollercoaster.
Thomas 's avatar
Thomas 1 year ago
Agree with you on the 1M #Bitcoin projection for 2025 or 2026. I see that within a decade or so. A 20-40% annual return (what Saylor projects) would be still way more than what you get with real estate or in the stock market.