Not enough adoption and day to day use amongst people and merchants. NGU may continue indefinitely, but payments have regressed in BTC commerce. I've seen more companies abandon it (for payments) than adopt it in my industry.
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There is no time limit though. It doesn't matter when it happens. So what does it mean not enough?
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I think if institutional adoption accelerates there is a time limit because it will be more centralised in the hands of the few who already hold most of the worlds wealth. Maybe it's transitional, but most people I know who have some prefer not to spend it. If it continues to succeed as a SoV, that's great, but we still have a money problem to solve if so.
Transactions should be increasing regularly with adoption. Instead, 15 years on we are seeing empty blocks.