With FASB accounting and many many more publicly traded companies buying g BTC every month do they all start going bananas on the last day of the quarters to push BTC price up so they have great quarterly earnings and push their BTC premiums higher?
For instance BTC over 98k ish makes MSTR eligible for SP500 inclusion. Shows positive earnings for 12 month rolling and should boost premium... a shit load if they get sp500 inclusion. However, if BTC is over 118k th3y will have the largest quarterly earnings in history bumping off apple. They will go from losing money q1 to largest quarterly in history. Make SP500 inclusion an absolute lock and push their PE to like 1. The average PE on sp500 is 28.4 and top 10 is 49.3. That would demand a PE for MSTR of at least 20. That .makes them 20x and would go in as the biggest stock inclusion on the sp500 ever. There would be a forced 100billion dollars added to portfolios in a 2 day period.
So my question, does Saylor realize this? Do the other companies realize this. Do they all go balls out for 24 hrs on 30 June to rip the price higher to set themselves up to raise money at much higher premiums and moon bitcoin?
It is a legit question because saylor totally fucked up FASB in q4 2024 when he didn't FASB report when he could have. TSLA did and the stock popped 10% plus. Saylor didn't and could never show the 15 billion he was up from day 1 til end of 2024 total buffoon move. Because the profits from q4 2024 back were all basically added to the back of the balance sheet and never realized on the P and L. Totally wasting their leg up on the market. Feel like he will sit on his hands here inst3ad of raising 10 billion and ripping market buys all day on 30 June. Idiot move but won't be the first.
Replies (3)
Maybe that's why they didn't report buying very many Bitcoin today as per usual... Could they be saving the firepower for next Monday?
Maybe. I doubt it though. Feel like his is under the misconception that he wants MSTR and BTC to go up slow and steady and that is better for them.
This is a huge mistake. He should want BTC to rip. MSTR will rip harder and premium will go from 1.7 to 3 or 5 or 10 or 20. Depending on SP500 inclusion explosion and how the market values their P/E. I think the market will look at the P/E the same as they look at other companies P/E now with FASB. Then his ATMs will buy 2 to 10x more bitcoin per dilution share issued.
Stupid to not push hard while he is way ahead of the market. If he does push hard by the time other big players get into the space MSTR will be beyond uncatchable. It will be a paradigm unto itself.
The premium is such a funny thing. It seems to be purely derived mostly from confidence of investors(our confidence ). So if there is the slightest breeze of confidence, it really lowers and then it seems hard to get off the ground again.
Metaplanet has really had great success with keeping it high... Semler not so much. I'm curious to see how the addition of Joe Burnett fuels confidence in Semler.
I' heard something about an MNav of 2 at the end of the growth phase just due to banking stocks trading at 2 of their assets. (I could be misremembering tho).
I have been a little wary of some of these recently because I'm starting to wonder how much of the high MNav is driven by same American investors who are Bitcoin believers doing the exact same thing in each company.
My concern is that the quantity of believers is not really growing organically enough to sustain.
It's like lighting a fire with tinder and slowly feeding it bigger logs.
It does seem like Strategy has the setup to really be a roaring bonfire.
Or maybe if the Bitcoin price rips, each company with Bitcoin treasury will already be a roaring fire and investors will bring their woodpiles to throw in them.