Article: Leverage points in the Bitcoin Ecosystem: Impact on price and climate change using dynamic systems and spherical fuzzy sets.
Abstract
With the significant increase in Bitcoin's price to around $108,000 in 2025 and its growth of 100% in 2024, scrutiny of the Bitcoin ecosystem and its influencing factors is of particular importance. The research aims to provide a comprehensive model for analyzing the Bitcoin ecosystem in forecasting the factors affecting it.This research used the Total Interpretive Structural Modeling method (TISM) to come up with ideas, the Spherical Fuzzy Decision Making Trial And Evaluation method (SF-DEMATEL) to find and look into how the indices related to each other, and the Spherical Fuzzy Step-Wise Weight Assessment Ratio Analysis method (SF-SWARA) to figure out how important the indices were. The findings identify control rules (0.222) and network security (0.196) as the most fundamental factors.Also, price (0.107) and Bitcoin value (0.089) are the most important among the influencing factors, while other cryptocurrencies have a lesser impact on the Bitcoin ecosystem (0.037). Analyses conducted using System Dynamics (SD) modeling showed that policies that increase control rules or improve tool quality by 50% can directly affect Bitcoin's price and climate change. The leverage point's analysis showed that stakeholders can contribute to the long-term sustainability of the Bitcoin ecosystem by strategically managing control rules, tool quality, network capacity, and turnover. The research presents a hybrid approach (SF & SD) to analyze the complexities and uncertainties of the Bitcoin ecosystem.The research implications can aid market participants in comprehending the Bitcoin ecosystem, forecasting Bitcoin prices, and assisting policymakers in implementing suitable regulations for the sustainable growth of this sector.