Here’s what we know “first principles”-wise on Bitcoin price action:
1) Everyone - EVERYONE - who understands Bitcoin has gone full into Bitcoin. So DCA is a minor - but an ongoing and fundamentally important - factor. This is something “Investmentland” doesn’t understand.
2) The new money coming from “Investmentland”, which ramped the fiat price up above $100k the last couple years, is now looking elsewhere because fiat does fiat. But they don’t have anywhere else to look, and they realize that. Hence gold/silver.
3) The Bitcoin network is unstoppable, so it will continue to grow. Development on the network will continue to grow. Bitcoin is the Bull in every china shop.
4) “OG Selling” has likely been a minor influence over the past few months, and will continue to wain as major OG’s were never KYC and selling triggers serious attention from gov’t entities. I personally don’t think this is much of a thing beyond those bartering Bitcoin for real estate et al assets in El Salvador. Selling pressure is coming from elsewhere, which brings us to…
5) “Paper Bitcoin” is something no one can measure. Yet if it looks like a duck, walks like a duck, quacks like a duck…it will eventually explode like a duck. Paper Bitcoin is undoubtedly rampant. Rampant. Remember when literally No One knew FTX existed? That’s where we are now. And there’s only one preparation for that: Self-Custody. Something will likely implode soon. It feels that way to me, and if it feels that way to you as well, then anything on exchange or in lending services is collateral damage.
6) Bitcoin is abiding.
7) We need to always be aligning our journey with Bitcoin.