The former. They definitely know who Satoshi is. I’m speculating on the rest.
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Is there any particular reason you believe they “definitely know”? Or do you just “definitely know” 😂
Hal
I haven't dug particularly deep into the timelines. But one has to admit that the seemingly permanent disappearance of Satoshi, and the decline of Hal's health and consequent passing are quite a coincidence.
That's without all the other coincidences, ethics and alignments.
Do you have any other clues about this beside assuming the NSA knows everything ?