For those anxious about recent #bitcoin price action and FUD listen to nostr:nprofile1qxdhwumn8ghj7mn0wvhxcmmv9ujnyvrhwden5te0dehhxarj9ekxzmny9ujnyvp9xgcxzanpw3shyffjxpmhxue69uhkummnw3ezuamfdejj7ffjxqjnyvrpweshgctjy5erqamnwvaz7tmsw4e8qmr9wfjkccte9e3k7mf0y5erqamnwvaz7tmjv4kxz7fwv3sk6atn9e5k7te9xgc8wumn8ghj7un9d3shjtnndehhyapwwdhkx6tpdshsz8nhwden5te0wfjkccte9ekkjmnywvhxxmmd9ahx7um5wghhvvgqyqz7jrhlglq7pm90t3da6n9jtwtfjdeg56xcht6lm4wwknjv2gnys6gx96u views on nostr:nprofile1qyxhwumn8ghj7cnjvghxjme0qyt8wumn8ghj7etyv4hzumn0wd68ytnvv9hxgtcqyrtl8gkckam5xwfxugu46v2e3yhgg70gwx5qpeqp7prlkz9dzlejkvg2vts podcast
If you do not have the time, I have summarized below my key takeaways of the podcast.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kwBE1Es1KkU&t=5s
Read that in conjunction with my latest two articles on the same topic and relax: https://primal.net/bitcoindollar/how-to-legally-steal-your-bitcoin
and
https://primal.net/bitcoindollar/bitcoins-great-dichotomy
Key Takeaways on Current Bitcoin Market Dynamics
1. The "Great Rotation" & Bitcoin's "IPO Moment"
• The current cycle is defined by a massive transfer of coins from long-term, early holders to a new class of institutional buyers.
• This was likened to an IPO, where early investors and employees (long-term Bitcoin holders) take profits by selling into the new, deep liquidity provided by ETFs and other large entities.
• The scale of selling from "Hodlers" (coins held 6+ months) has been "unprecedented," amounting to "billions of dollars a day" and dwarfing the outflows from ETFs.
2. The Three Pillars Driving This Cycle
The market is being shaped by three major forces:
• ETFs: A massive, consistent source of demand, but they are not the only story. They account for only 20-30% of the demand, with the rest happening in the spot market.
• Hodler Sell-Side: The dominant force of this cycle. Long-term holders are realizing profits on a scale never seen before, creating immense sell-side pressure.
• iBit Options: A growing and significant factor that is changing market structure, with open interest already at 60% of the underlying asset. This allows for strategies like covered calls and will continue to grow.
3. The New Market Floor & True Market Mean is ~$82K
• A key metric called the "True Market Mean" (which focuses on the cost basis of active investors, discounting long-lost coins) is currently at $82,000.
• This level is seen as a strong potential bottom and a new center of gravity for Bitcoin because:
◦ 70% of Bitcoin's invested wealth now has a cost basis above ~$85K.
◦ The average cost basis for ETF investors is also around $82K.
◦ This makes $82K a critical psychological and financial support level where the "average market participant" breaks even.
4. Who is Buying? Large, Price-Insensitive Institutions
• Given the enormous sell-side pressure from Hodlers and the fact that the price went sideways for a long time before correcting, there must be a massive, stealth buyer on the other side.
• This buying is happening in the spot market, not through ETFs.
• The size of the buying suggests the buyers are large, strategic, and price-insensitive entities, likely banks, sovereign wealth funds, or nation-states making long-term allocations.
5. Reset Expectations, Not Just Price
• The current downturn is framed as a necessary to reset investor expectations after the hype of the ETF launch failed to lead to a massive, sustained bull run.
• The focus should be on the market finding a new equilibrium and shaking out weak hands.
• The base case for a bottom is in the $70K - $82K range, with the True Market Mean of $82K acting as a key level. A drop to $50K is considered unlikely without a major, unforeseen catastrophe.
6. Long-Term Bullishness Remains Intact
• Despite the correction, the fundamental thesis for Bitcoin is unchanged: the global financial system is "bankrupt" and will require more money printing, while Bitcoin's supply remains fixed.
• The current downturn is an opportunity for long-term holders. The advice is to "prepare, not predict," understand your time horizon, and use volatility to accumulate rather than panic.
• Checkmate remains constructive for 2026, expecting a potential run towards $150K+ once the market bottoms and macro liquidity conditions potentially improve.
#HODL #SoundMoney #Bitcoindollar #Bitcoin #Pleb #OrangePill #Nip05