“Will core v30 reach 20% of network by 2026”
“Will knots nodes reach 30%”
Etc
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No, you’d have to make them conditional, with some kind of if/then clause.
“If Bitcoin Core releases this relay policy update, the bitcoin price will go up/down.”
Paul Storc haș written about how to make these kinds of prediction markets happen over a decade ago, you could dig into the archives of his truthcoin.info blog if you’re interested.