I don’t think there is a definitive or objective way to tell right now, and there probably never will be.
Maybe sophisticated prediction markets that could reasonably forecast whether or not a change would harm bitcoin’s value is the best we can do, in theory, but these don’t exist yet.
Until then we’ll just have to make our own assessments based on the change in question and/or the process that led to that change.
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Prediction markets are a good idea. Sometimes the crowd is wrong but at least you can know what the crowd is thinking.
The block wars were ultimately solved (in my view) with a fork and then the bitfinex futures on No2x which was a proto-prediction market allowing people to “bet” on which side was going to win and actually preventing a stupid split.
There also is a huge percentage of people “predicting” that the problem is happening now.
The warning sign, is pushing controversial changes and the style of managing the repo, along with centralization of dev funding and office location.
