If you had to bet, who’s going to blink first?
OpenAI + large LLM corps (open source AI keeps up in capability, forcing the OpenAI et al. business model to be unprofitable and unsustainable)
or
Open source AI devs (compute hardware requirements become too demanding and/or regulations make open source dev too legally risky so they throw the towel)
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Regulations will never stop those developing for fun or offshore. Regulatory moats will leave those big guys on an island when they're out-bribed (read: out-lobbied)by some even newer guys.