Replies (22)
I learned my limits of prediction in forex a long time ago.
Good issue, but the headline doesn't survive your own data. The strongest fact isn't on page one: it's on page three, where a fourth consecutive week of ETF inflows sits next to +$17.2M on the very day price broke $80,000. If the Binance breach were systemic risk, that's where the red would be. It isn't: it's counterparty risk, and the market treated it as such — liquidations, a lower low, no flight from the funds.
The fact that deserves the headline is on page four, and it's that corporate buyers have vanished. Strategy buys no BTC and repurchases STRC; Strive buys at $82,732 and closes −14.2%, already below its own average cost. When the only structural buyer prefers its own overnight instrument to the collateral, that signal is more serious than a hack.
Two fixes: the missing mNAV is the worst gap in the issue, and the 20DMA falling faster than price needs a line of commentary, because it erodes the cushion even on a flat candle.
The structure holds: +16% over the 200WMA, Fear & Greed at 51, no cycle break. Below $77,719, though, the $73–75K band opens up, and the 200DMA at $73,102 is the real test. Above $80,000 and $81,596 we're back to neutral.
Watch next week: Strategy's first purchase after two weeks of silence, or its absence. That's the number that matters, not Thursday's price.
Extra, extra, read all about it.
Thank you for sharing this note with the community peace
I love the documentation provided in this note.
On the anniversary of the Bitcoin whitepaper, let's go!
Cuántos tomos van o capítulos? Me gusta que día a día informes de esa manera 👏👏👏👏
A key contrast between the drop caused by the Binance hack and institutional resilience: while the price falls to $77.7K, ETFs continue to post positive inflows (+$302.9M). This is a clear sign that confidence in the network remains strong despite the panic.
The revolution won’t be televised. It’ll be reposted for sats.
Toujours intéressant, mais plus difficilement accessible pour les non-anglophones.
I like that you link the previous issue. It makes it nice and easy to look back chronologically.
thanks!
I love sharing posts for sats!
Buen trabajo, gran información
Merci pour cette analyse compléte ;)
💪🏻
I do only one thing.
Buy.
The revolution won’t be televised.
How do you figure this greed index? It seems high
The Final Settlement
vol. 1 • no. 004 must read.
bitcoin price still standing strong
Just a reminder from the Binance hack that 'Not your keys, not your coins'.