Lots of fake revenue by issuing invoices and payments to one another, which they can present to banks and get bigger loans in both sides. Then the extra money allows more invoices back and forth which raises evaluations (that allows them to get even more money) and also borrow more.

Replies (1)

Interesting. So the fraud is not in the back-and-forth exchange or investment, but in presenting false accounting to a bank, who takes that accounting as true, and then lends more money based on false accounting? I finally read the article. The argument is there is likely an unsustainable AI boom and Bloomberg would like to blame NVIDIA and OpenAI for the coming crash because there will be ripple effects throughout the economy. NVIDIA produces real hardware that is really bought and used. No fraud here. NVIDIA recognizes that its most important customers run models on their hardware so it invests in some of them. No fraud here. They cannot take 100% of revenue and disburse it to their customers who return 100% of it to them without loss because they need to pay employees. NVIDIA claims to have 43B in cash vs 10B in debt as of January 2025. That could be fraudulent, meaning they don't actually have that cash, but that should be obvious when they try to send it to someone else's accounts. OpenAI says they're not profitable yet so they need to borrow money until they are profitable. No fraud here. Banks take a risk whenever loaning to a business and they know this. Losses happen all the time. No fraud here. I can see the argument that false accounting given to a bank is fraud. The elephant in the room, however, is the Federal Reserve Bank creating loanable funds out of nothing and artificially lowering the loanable funds interest rate. This (actual fraud on the part of the central bank) signals a (false) lowering of time preference to capitalists and entrepreneurs, diverting investment from lower-order goods to higher-order goods. Many of these higher-order goods (not all) ultimately do not have enough actual market demand to sustain them profitably, and when the loans are called in or more loans cease, the bubble collapses, with its effects being broader than one industry alone. In this case, NVIDIA and OpenAI could be exemplar unsustainable higher-order goods. But it is not as though NVIDIA and OpenAI can fuel an unsustainable general boom across the full market themselves, they require banks, and those banks require money out of nothing, and such counterfeiting is the most flagrant fraud. In other words, maybe there is a bit of "fraud" going on in the accounting and presentations. The "fraud" by NVIDIA and OpenAI is probably not much different from the usual "fraud" when presenting to banks, who take a known risk when loaning funds and know that most businesses fail. The scale here may be larger than usual, but I would attribute that to the scale of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet, not the particular players in the economy who try to build stuff and make it long-run profitable. So if or when the bubble bursts, the blame is squarely on the Congress and Fed who created money from nothing, not on the builders. The best thing to do during the bust is to let those lenders lose their money, let the companies fail, and let the squandered capital be liquidated at market price. Aside: OpenAI has a fraudulent name, for sure, as its flagship product is proprietary and not open. NVIDIA GPUs require enormous proprietary binaries too. So I'm not trying to cheerlead these companies but trying to analyze the situation and find where these Bloomberg folks went wrong. I think they might be on to something but their analysis stops short of root cause.