This is a great article. Thanks for writing this. We live in a complex world (which generally means most emphatic predictions are proven wrong); your article gentle pulls on these various strands of complexity to build a compelling narrative.

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Thank you very much. I'm glad you liked it. Predicting the future is slippery business, but I tried to build the best model I could. Some of it is structurally determined—all but a done deal barring catastrophic black swans. Timing and particular dynamics, we will see.