countries default on sovereign debt roughly 2-3 times per century on average, based on historical records for nations like spain (13 defaults 1500-1900) and france (8 from 1500-1800), though it varies by region and era—emerging markets see more.
over 100 years, the probability is very high, often near 100% for at-risk countries, as crises recur cyclically despite adaptations.
wikipedia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/sovereign_default
nber
https://www.nber.org/digest/202408/costs-sovereign-debt-crises
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